宏观日报：黑色中游复产，关税冲突暂缓-20251106

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, most blast furnaces that were under maintenance at the end of October resumed production on November 1st. A heavy - pollution weather level - II emergency response was launched on November 3rd, with many implementing a 30% sintering production limit. As of November 5th, 14 out of 89 blast furnaces in 23 sample steel enterprises were under maintenance, and some enterprises planned to moderately reduce production. The daily average impact on molten iron production was about 39,100 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.19%, an increase of 0.28% from last week and a decrease of 5.07% from the same period last year. Also, starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, the 24% additional tariff on US - imported goods will be suspended for one year, while the 10% tariff will be retained [1]. - In the service industry, the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal suggests the steady development of futures, derivatives, and asset securitization. The strategic position of derivatives has been significantly elevated, and the futures industry is accelerating its transformation and upgrading [1]. Summary by Directory Upstream - In the chemical industry, the price of natural rubber has declined [2]. - In the agricultural industry, the price of palm oil has dropped [2]. - In the non - ferrous metals industry, the price of copper has slightly decreased [2]. Midstream - In the chemical industry, the PX operation rate is at a high level, and the polyester operation rate has slightly increased [3]. - In the energy industry, the coal consumption of power plants is at a low level [3]. Downstream - In the real estate industry, the sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [4]. - In the service industry, the number of domestic flights has slightly increased, and the movie box office is in the off - season [4]. Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Value | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2152.9 yuan/ton | 0.20% | | Agriculture | Spot price of eggs | 6.2 yuan/kg | - 0.32% | | Agriculture | Spot price of palm oil | 8652.0 yuan/ton | 2.24% | | Agriculture | Spot price of cotton | 14834.5 yuan/ton | - 0.08% | | Agriculture | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.2 yuan/kg | 1.28% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 85431.7 yuan/ton | - 2.67% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of zinc | 22486.0 yuan/ton | 0.96% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of aluminum | 21450.0 yuan/ton | 1.29% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of nickel | 121050.0 yuan/ton | - 1.20% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of rebar | 3138.0 yuan/ton | - 1.60% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of iron ore | 801.9 yuan/ton | - 1.80% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of wire rod | 3305.0 yuan/ton | - 1.05% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of glass | 14.0 yuan/square meter | 1.30% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14466.7 yuan/ton | - 3.29% | | Non - metals | China Plastic City price index | 777.5 | - 0.10% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 60.6 dollars/barrel | 0.68% | | Energy | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 64.4 dollars/barrel | 0.06% | | Energy | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4288.0 yuan/ton | - 2.01% | | Energy | Coal price | 820.0 yuan/ton | 1.36% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 4555.4 yuan/ton | 0.01% | | Chemical | Spot price of polyethylene | 7011.7 yuan/ton | - 1.13% | | Chemical | Spot price of urea | 1597.5 yuan/ton | - 1.84% | | Chemical | Spot price of soda ash | 1203.6 yuan/ton | - 0.53% | | Chemical | National cement price index | 136.7 | 0.18% | | Real estate | Building materials composite index | 112.0 points | - 0.94% | | Real estate | National concrete price index | 90.9 points | - 0.13% | [37]