有色金属月度策略：Metal Futures Daily Strategy-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific investment suggestions for each metal: - Copper: Recommended to gradually buy on dips, with a short - term pressure range of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton and support range of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. Consider selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options [3]. - Zinc: Consider buying on dips and selling out - of - the - money put options. The upper pressure is around 22,800 - 23,000, and short - term support is around 22,300 - 22,400 [4]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: For aluminum, recommended to buy on dips; for alumina, short positions should be held cautiously; for recycled aluminum alloy, take a bullish approach [5]. - Tin: Suggested to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 290,000 - 300,000 and a support range of 260,000 - 270,000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [6][7]. - Lead: Consider a double - selling option strategy, with short - term support around 17,300 - 17,400 and upper pressure around 17,800 - 18,000 [8]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: For nickel, wait and see the support at the lower range and consider selling out - of - the - money put options on dips; for stainless steel, it is in a weak shock, with support around 12,500 - 12,600 and upper pressure around 13,000 - 13,200 [9]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall upward trend of the non - ferrous sector remains unchanged, but the weak manufacturing data in China and the US and the uncertainty of interest rate cuts have affected the upward pace of non - ferrous metals. The recent rebound of the US dollar index has put pressure on risk assets [12]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations. For example, copper has supply constraints and is expected to enter a demand peak season; zinc has a strong mine end and weak demand; aluminum has production capacity changes and a transition from peak to off - peak season; tin has supply shortages and limited demand recovery; lead has supply recovery and demand decline; nickel and stainless steel have weak supply - demand fundamentals [14][15][16][17][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Suggestions - Macro Logic: The overall non - ferrous sector is still in an upward trend, but the focus has shifted from macro - narrative to real demand. The weak manufacturing data in China and the US and the uncertainty of interest rate cuts have affected the upward pace. The rebound of the US dollar index has put pressure on risk assets. The voices of the Fed officials after the October resolution are divided on interest rate cuts [12]. - Investment Suggestions for Each Metal: See the content in the "Report Industry Investment Rating" section above [3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - Copper closed at 85,670 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.08%; zinc closed at 22,650 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.09%; aluminum closed at 21,395 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.33%; alumina closed at 2,772 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.07%; tin closed at 282,090 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.58%; lead closed at 17,475 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.34%; nickel closed at 120,030 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.28%; stainless steel closed at 12,535 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.08%; cast aluminum alloy closed at 20,830 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.62% [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report provides the latest position analysis of non - ferrous metals, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, net long - position changes, net short - position changes, and influencing factors of various varieties such as Shanghai lead, industrial silicon, alumina, etc. [21][22]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report lists the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report presents various charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, etc. For example, for copper, there are charts of exchange copper inventory changes and LME copper inventory; for zinc, there are charts of zinc inventory changes and zinc concentrate processing fee changes [25][27]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report shows various charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage, such as copper's Shanghai - London ratio changes, the spread between Shanghai copper and London copper, zinc's Shanghai - London ratio changes, etc. [54][56]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides various charts related to non - ferrous metals options, such as copper option historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open interest changes, etc. [72][73].