Report Investment Ratings - Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil): Cautiously bearish [1] - Iron Ore: Cautiously bearish [1] - Coke: Cautiously bullish [1] - Coking Coal: Cautiously bullish [1] - Silicomanganese: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ferrosilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] Core Views - Rebar: It shows characteristics of weak supply and demand in the off - season, with high inventory in Hangzhou. The fundamentals are generally balanced but weak. The significant decline in hot metal production weakens the support for raw materials. It has limited upward and downward drivers, maintaining a range - bound operation in the medium term. Currently, it has fallen near the previous low, testing the support at 3000 and may fluctuate at low levels [1][4]. - Hot Rolled Coil: Both apparent demand and production have rebounded, and inventory has decreased slightly but remains higher than the same period in previous years. The large decline in hot metal production weakens the demand support for raw materials. It operates in a range in the medium term and may fluctuate after continuous declines in the short term [1][4]. - Iron Ore: This week, there is a significant week - on - week decrease in hot metal due to environmental protection control in Tangshan and loss - driven maintenance of some steel mills. Steel mill maintenance has increased, and the sustainability of maintenance needs to be monitored. Steel mills are reducing inventory while ports are accumulating inventory. The arrival of foreign ore has increased significantly, and the static fundamentals are neutral to bearish. With the exhaustion of short - term macro - positive factors, the ore price will fluctuate weakly in the short term [1][6]. - Coke: The third round of price increase is expected to be fully implemented, and there are differences in the market regarding the fourth round. Recently, the profits of coke enterprises have improved slightly but are still mostly in a loss state. The hot metal production has declined from a high level, and the steel mill inventory is at a moderately low level, with short - term replenishment enthusiasm. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited, and it follows the coking coal price in a range - bound operation [1][9]. - Coking Coal: On the supply side, the coal mine operating rate has decreased slightly due to safety inspections and underground problems. There is still uncertainty in Mongolia's political situation, and the subsequent port traffic needs to be monitored. The exchange has issued an opinion announcement on the delivery quality standard, but the applicable contract is not clear, and it has limited impact on listed contracts. Currently, coal mine shipments are still good, and the short - term supply - demand pattern remains tight, with prices expected to be strong [1][12]. - Silicomanganese: The production area supply is still at a high level in the same period, downstream demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has continued to increase compared to the previous period. The price of manganese ore has risen slightly, and the short - term cost side provides some support for the price, but it is still cautiously bearish [1][16]. - Ferrosilicon: The production area supply remains at a high level, downstream demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has increased significantly compared to the previous period. Attention should be paid to the re - warehousing situation after the cancellation of warehouse receipts. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon have become loose, and there is upward pressure on short - term coal prices, so it is treated bearishly [1][16]. Summary by Variety Steel Products - Price Information: Rebar 01 is at 3024 with a decline of 20; Rebar 05 is at 3094 with a decline of 14; Rebar 10 is at 3133 with a decline of 11. Hot Rolled Coil 01 is at 3253 with a decline of 12; Hot Rolled Coil 05 is at 3260 with a decline of 12; Hot Rolled Coil 10 is at 3283 with a decline of 13. Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also show certain declines [2]. - Operation Suggestion: For rebar, it has limited upward and downward drivers, maintaining a range - bound operation in the medium term and may fluctuate at low levels near the support of 3000. For hot - rolled coil, it operates in a range in the medium term and may fluctuate after continuous declines in the short term [5]. Iron Ore - Price Information: Not provided in the given text. - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bearish. Due to production reduction disturbances and increased supply, the ore price is under pressure [7]. Coke - Price Information: The 1 - month contract of coke is at 1753.0, up 24.0 from the previous value; the 01 basis is - 108, down 24.0. Other contract prices and basis also show corresponding changes. Spot prices in different regions have increased to varying degrees [8]. - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and there are differences in the fourth - round price increase [10]. Coking Coal - Price Information: The 1 - month contract of coking coal is at 1268.5, up 15.5 from the previous value; the 01 basis is 331, down 15.5. Other contract prices and basis also show corresponding changes. Spot prices in different regions remain stable [11]. - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish. The supply - demand pattern is tight, and prices are expected to be strong [13]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price Information: Manganese silicon 01 is at 5776, up 22; Ferrosilicon 01 is at 5560, up 50. Spot prices in different regions and basis also show corresponding changes [15]. - Operation Suggestion: For silicomanganese, it is cautiously bearish as the cost side provides some short - term support. For ferrosilicon, it is bearishly treated due to loose fundamentals and upward pressure on coal prices [17].
中辉黑色观点-20251106
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-11-06 07:30