Xinda Securities·2025-11-06 08:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the heating industry, consistent with previous assessments [2]. Core Insights - The heating industry is undergoing continuous reform, with a focus on market-oriented pricing and improved cost control, leading to enhanced profitability for well-managed companies [3][4]. - The report highlights significant disparities in profitability among residential heating companies, influenced by pricing policies and cost management strategies [3][4]. - The cash flow situation for heating companies is generally strong due to pre-collection of heating fees, which contributes to positive free cash flow [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Residential Heating: A Typical Public Utility Industry - The area of centralized heating in China has steadily increased, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.8% from 2010 to 2023, where residential heating accounts for 76% of the total area [3][4]. - Coal remains the dominant source of heating, constituting over 70% of the supply, primarily through coal-fired combined heat and power (CHP) systems [3][4]. - The government has been actively reforming heating pricing mechanisms, with recent policies aimed at enhancing market-driven pricing and accelerating metering reforms [3][4]. 2. Profitability Disparities Among Residential Heating Companies - Profitability varies significantly among heating companies, with factors such as pricing and cost control playing crucial roles [3][4]. - The report notes that fuel costs account for approximately 60% of total heating costs, making effective fuel cost management essential for profitability [3][4]. - Companies like Lianmei Holdings have demonstrated strong cost control, achieving a gross margin of 24% in 2024, while others like Huitian Thermal Power have faced losses [3][4]. 3. Related Investment Targets - Lianmei Holdings is highlighted for its high level of management efficiency and consistent gross margins above 20%, with a significant portion of its assets in cash [3][4]. - Jingneng Thermal Power benefits from its backing by the Beijing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a gross margin between 15% and 20% [3][4]. - Jin Fang Energy, operating in Beijing, maintains stable profitability in its core heating business, while Hatou Holdings is expected to improve profitability alongside pricing reforms [3][4].