双焦11月报：铁水产量下行，关注煤矿供应情况-20251106

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coke, it is expected that in November, both supply and demand will be weak. The pricing logic of the futures market may shift, with the pricing weight of the supply side decreasing and that of the demand side increasing. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading strategy for coke, with the coke index referring to 1620 - 1850 - 1900 [6]. - For coking coal, the demand is expected to decline, and whether domestic coal mine supply can recover remains to be seen. The pricing logic of the futures market may also shift, with the supply - side pricing weight decreasing and the demand - side pricing weight increasing. A range - trading strategy is also recommended for coking coal, with the coking coal index referring to 1130 - 1350 - 1400 [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coke Price - In October, coke prices generally showed a strong trend. As of October 29, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1560 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase compared to the end of September [15]. Supply - Currently, coking enterprises are operating at a loss. Due to the weakening of steel mill profits, there is an expectation of price cuts for coke, which will further reduce coking enterprise profits and production enthusiasm. In mid - November, with the start of heating in northern regions, some coking enterprises may face environmental production restrictions, leading to an expected decline in coke production [6][29]. Demand - With the arrival of the off - season for steel demand, the production of molten iron is expected to continue to decline. The current weakening of steel demand and the significant decline in steel mill profitability have also affected steel mill production enthusiasm. Coupled with the possible tightening of environmental production restrictions in November, the production of molten iron is expected to weaken significantly, reducing the demand for coke [6][32]. Import and Export - In September 2025, coke exports were 542,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7400 tons; imports were 14.62 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.22 tons. Some southern steel mills in China imported a large amount of coke from Indonesia in September, leading to a significant increase in coke imports [36]. Inventory - In October, the coke inventories of coking enterprises and steel mills both decreased. Currently, coking enterprise inventories are at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, while steel mill inventories are at a relatively high level. Although there is an expectation of winter stockpiling, the high current inventory level of steel mills limits their space for winter stockpiling. Port inventories are at a relatively high level, which has a certain negative impact on the futures market [6][40]. Basis and Spread - As of October 29, the basis of the coke 01 contract (Rizhao quasi - first - grade converted to warehouse receipts) was - 65, a decrease from - 47 at the end of September; the basis of the 05 contract was - 204, a decrease from - 42 at the end of September; the basis of the 09 contract was - 288, a decrease from - 42 at the end of September. The different - month contracts of coke show a contango structure, indicating a relatively pessimistic market view on the supply - demand pattern of near - month contracts [43][47]. Coking Coal Price - The prices of main coking coal and blended coking coal both showed a strong and fluctuating trend. As of October 29, the aggregated price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Lvliang was 1560 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase compared to the end of September [51]. Supply - In October, due to safety reasons, work - face changes in some coal mines, and the shutdown of open - pit coal mines in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, for goaf treatment, coal mine production significantly declined to a low level compared to the same period in previous years. Whether domestic coal mine supply can recover remains uncertain, and some coal mines may slow down production after reaching their annual targets. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has returned to normal levels and is expected to remain high in November [8][55][60]. Demand - With the arrival of the off - season for steel demand, the production of molten iron is expected to decline, steel mill profits are weakening, and coking enterprise profits are under pressure. As a result, coke production is expected to decline, reducing the demand for coking coal. In the long term, if the coke import market expands, it will squeeze the domestic coke market and further weaken the demand for coking coal [64]. Import and Export - In July 2025, coking coal imports were 10.92 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 760,000 tons; exports were 11,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2800 tons. The increase in domestic coking coal prices has led to an increase in import profits and a gradual rise in import volumes, which currently have returned to a high level [68]. Inventory - In October, supported by high molten iron production, coking enterprises and steel mills continued to replenish their coking coal inventories, which are currently at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period in previous years. Coal mine inventories have significantly decreased to a low level compared to the same period in previous years, while port inventories have changed little and are at a medium level. The current inventory structure has no major contradictions, but due to the expected decline in demand, the willingness of coking enterprises and steel mills to replenish inventories may decline [89]. Basis and Spread - As of October 29, the basis of the coking coal 01 contract (Meng 5 coking coal in Tangshan converted to warehouse receipts) was - 49, a decrease from - 123 at the end of September; the basis of the 05 contract was - 117, a decrease from - 104 at the end of September; the basis of the 09 contract was - 183, a decrease from - 83 at the end of September. The different - month contracts of coking coal show a contango structure, indicating a relatively pessimistic market view on the supply - demand pattern of near - month contracts [97][101].