橡胶专题：EUDR政策回顾及对天然橡胶市场影响

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The implementation of the EU EUDR policy may increase the cost of issuing various certificates required by the act for natural rubber-related entities, which may push up the global cost center of natural rubber, but the effect depends on the matching degree between the supply of EUDR rubber and the demand of the European market [2][41][48] - The certification process for natural rubber suppliers to enter the European market involves multiple steps and brings uncertainty, which will lead to changes in the future trade flow of natural rubber [2][41][48] - After two years of adaptation, it is difficult to reproduce last year's market this year. Although European traders' procurement rhythm was slow in the early stage of this year, the clarification of the policy implementation time may boost their procurement willingness later, but the impact on natural rubber prices may be limited [3][42][51] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. EUDR Policy Review EUDR Policy Content and Development Process - The EUDR policy aims to ensure that specific commodities in the EU market are not produced through deforestation or forest degradation, covering 7 categories of commodities including rubber. Entities need to fulfill three core obligations: no deforestation, legality, and due diligence. Non - compliance will result in penalties [10][11] - The policy officially took effect on June 29, 2023, with an 18 - month transition period. After multiple adjustments, it will be implemented for large companies on December 30, 2025, and for micro and small enterprises on June 30, 2026 [11][12] EUDR Rule Points - The definitions of "deforestation" and "forest degradation" need to be clarified. EUDR requires companies to prove forest recovery after logging and provide corresponding evidence, which incurs time, labor, and material costs [13] - All operators must submit a due - diligence statement (DDS) for each batch of relevant products entering the EU market, including basic information, product information, source information, risk assessment, and compliance statements [14][15] 2. Export Characteristics of Natural Rubber Producing Countries since the Introduction of the EUDR Policy - In 2024, due to the expected implementation of the EUDR policy, European traders increased their procurement in advance, leading to an increase in the exports of natural rubber producing countries to non - Chinese markets. The trade flow of natural rubber changed microscopically [16] - In 2024, Thailand and Côte d'Ivoire were more active in EUDR certification. Some Thai standard rubber flowed to Europe, squeezing the volume to China. EUDR natural rubber had a price premium of up to over 200 dollars/ton compared to non - EUDR rubber [16][20] - In 2024, the raw material price in Thailand was the highest in recent years, due to the high premium of EUDR rubber and limited raw material output caused by heavy rainfall [21][23][49] - In 2024, the absolute and incremental exports of natural rubber to the EU from Côte d'Ivoire were the highest, while China's imports from Côte d'Ivoire decreased significantly [25] - In 2024, Indonesia's exports to China and the world slowed down, mainly due to a decline in production. In 2025, due to the widening price difference between Thai and Indonesian standards and the slowdown in demand in Europe and the United States, Indonesian rubber flowed back to China [26][29] - In 2024, Vietnam's production increased, and the increase in exports to non - Chinese markets matched the production growth [34] 3. Current Situation of European Natural Rubber and Tire Imports - In 2024, the EU's natural rubber imports increased significantly, with a month - on - month increase of 16.4%, reaching peaks in April and November. The import volume from Thailand, Vietnam, Côte d'Ivoire, and Malaysia increased, while that from Indonesia decreased [43][44] - In 2024, the EU's tire imports rebounded significantly, with a month - on - month increase of 16.44%. 40% of the imports came from China, and the import volume from Vietnam increased the most [44]