PAIKE(SH:605123) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-06 08:17Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, highlighting its leadership in the high-end forging industry and its applications across aerospace, power, and petrochemical sectors [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a core supplier of aerospace ring forgings, leveraging dual growth from military and civilian products. It has established a strong foothold in high-end markets such as aerospace, nuclear power, and gas turbines [6][15]. - The aerospace forging segment is expected to see significant growth, with projected revenues of 9.7 billion, 11.9 billion, and 14.3 billion yuan for 2025E-2027E, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 23%, and 20% respectively [8][9]. - The energy market's recovery presents new growth opportunities, particularly in wind and nuclear power, where the company is a key supplier of critical components [6][9]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 3.21 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.94 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.4% from 2019 to 2024 [2][29]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 326 million yuan in 2025 to 471 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 23.7% and 17.8% [2][29]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 25 in 2025 to 18 in 2027, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [7][29]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has a strong competitive position in the aerospace forging market, characterized by high barriers to entry due to stringent technical and quality requirements [6][37]. - The demand for aerospace forgings is driven by the increasing need for military and civilian aircraft, with the military aviation engine forging market projected to reach 125.8 billion yuan over the next decade [6][9]. - The company has successfully entered the global supply chain of leading international firms, enhancing its market reach and growth potential [9][35]. Product Applications and Customer Base - The company’s products span various sectors, including aerospace (engine casings, combustion chambers), aerospace (rocket bodies, satellite structures), power (wind, nuclear, thermal), and petrochemical (flanges, pressure vessels) [22][23]. - Major clients include China Aviation Engine Corporation, GE, Rolls-Royce, and Siemens, indicating a robust customer base in high-demand industries [22][23]. Growth Drivers and Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for aerospace components, driven by both military and civilian applications, as well as the global energy transition towards renewable sources [6][9]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategic initiatives to expand production capacity and optimize its business structure, which are anticipated to support sustained revenue growth [6][9].