Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-06 09:05Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market shows a complex situation with both supply and demand sides having growth potential. The price of lithium carbonate futures is volatile, and the option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices while controlling risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 80,500 yuan/ton, up 1,360 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 164,646 hands, up 6,420 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 471,983 hands, up 18,723 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 2,480 yuan/ton, down 1,280 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 26,420 hands/ton, down 410 hands [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 100 yuan/ton, down 1,460 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 970 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 8,405 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 3,060 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,140 tons, up 1,260 tons; the monthly import volume is 19,596.90 tons, down 2,250.01 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 47%, up 1%; the monthly output of power batteries is 151,200 MWh, up 11,600 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 33,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 11.90 million yuan/ton, up 0.25 million yuan; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 164,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 144,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 156,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, down 2%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.48 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 59%, up 2%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,617,000, up 226,000; the monthly sales volume is 1,604,000, up 209,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 46.09%, up 0.55%; the cumulative sales volume is 11,228,000, up 2,908,000; the monthly export volume is 222,000, down 2,000; the cumulative export volume is 1,758,000, up 830,000; the 20 - day average volatility of the target is 31.02%, up 0.32%; the 40 - day average volatility is 27.41%, up 0.06% [2]. Option Situation - The total subscription position is 239,975, down 1,773; the total put position is 130,787, up 17,281; the put - call ratio of the total position is 54.50%, up 7.5481%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.28%, down 0.0027% [2]. Industry News - In October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56% month - on - month increase. From January to October 2025, Chile exported 189,400 tons of lithium carbonate, a 5.3% year - on - year decrease. In October 2025, Chile exported 1,708 tons of lithium sulfate, all to China, an 80% month - on - month decrease. From January to October 2025, Chile exported 72,000 tons of lithium sulfate, an 81% year - on - year increase [2]. - As of the end of September, China's new energy storage installed capacity exceeded 100 million kilowatts, more than 30 times that at the end of the 13th Five - Year Plan, ranking first in the world [2]. - TrendForce predicts that the global demand for solid - state batteries (including semi - solid) will exceed 206 GWh in 2030 and expand to over 740 GWh in 2035 [2]. - In October 2025, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.4 million, a 17% year - on - year increase and an 8% month - on - month increase, with a penetration rate of 58.7% [2]. 4. Technical Analysis - On the technical side, the 60 - minute MACD has both lines below the 0 - axis and the green bar is converging [2]. 5. Operation Suggestion - Conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices and pay attention to controlling trading rhythm and risks [2].