瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market is facing a large supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season, with the expected increase in sugar production in India, the world's second-largest sugar producer, intensifying concerns about oversupply. ICE's most actively traded March raw sugar futures fell 0.11 cents, or 0.80%, to settle at 14.11 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the forecasted arrival of out-of-quota raw sugar in October is 175,000 tons, with the import volume expected to decrease month-on-month. Additionally, recent news about syrups and premixes provides some support. However, the loose supply-demand situation still exerts pressure on the sugar market, and sugar prices are expected to remain low in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,448 yuan/ton, with a net increase of 4,955; the main contract position is 372,447 hands. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 7,422; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is -60,088 hands, a decrease of 6,371 hands. The effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar is 1,586. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3,966 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 5,021 yuan/ton, a decrease of 118. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 119; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,750 yuan/ton [2] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,660 yuan/ton; the spot price in Nanning is 5,750 yuan/ton; the spot price in Liuzhou is 5,720 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugarcane planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 1,116.21 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar production is 835.09 million tons, a decrease of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The monthly import volume of sugar is 550,000 tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.2458 million tons, a decrease of 498,200 tons [2] 3.4 Industrial Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,596 yuan/ton, an increase of 93; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 94. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 502 yuan/ton, an increase of 121; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 541 yuan/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,591.7 million tons, a decrease of 184.1 million tons [2] 3.6 Options Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for sugar is 8.15%, an increase of 1.41%; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options for sugar is 8.22%, an increase of 1.47%. The 20-day historical volatility of sugar is 7.93%, an increase of 0.36%; the 60-day historical volatility is 6.96%, an increase of 0.14% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of October 31, the cumulative sugar sales in Yunnan Province reached 2.3115 million tons, compared with 1.9991 million tons in the same period last year. The sugar sales rate was 95.57% (98.38% in the same period last year). In October, the single-month sugar sales in Yunnan were 97,500 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons year-on-year. ICE raw sugar futures fell to a five-year low on Wednesday [2]