2025年11月有色金属分析报告：逐步过渡传统淡季，关注内外价差波动

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's "rate cut + halt to balance - sheet reduction" signals a major shift in post - pandemic monetary policy. A December rate cut is likely, but future policies will be more flexible and uncertain. Domestically, China's economy in the first three quarters was in line with expectations, with strong resilience. Despite challenges like weak consumption and investment, policies will support the economy to achieve the annual growth target [4][56][57]. - For aluminum, the Fed's expected December rate cut and domestic fiscal support are macro factors. Fundamentally, the Guinea rainy - season impact on ore shipments may support alumina prices, but the alumina supply remains loose. Demand is transitioning to the off - season, and inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. The monthly price has a support level around 20,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton [4][105]. - For zinc, the external - strong and internal - weak pattern will continue. In November, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Supply may decline, and the domestic refined zinc surplus may ease. Demand is entering the off - season, with the real estate sector weak and the auto and home - appliance sectors providing support [8][9]. - For tin, the supply at the mine end remains tight, and the recovery of production in Myanmar is slow. The semiconductor and auto industries support tin demand. The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro: The Fed Cuts Rates as Expected, and Domestic Demand Still Faces Pressure Market Operation Logic - US: In October, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points and ended balance - sheet reduction. Manufacturing was in a slump, service industry growth slowed, the labor market cooled, and the CPI fell more than expected. Future policies are expected to be more flexible and uncertain, and a December rate cut is likely [19][20][24]. - Eurozone: In October, the economy showed "enhanced stage expansion and intensified structural differentiation." The service industry PMI reached a 1 - and - a - half - year high, inflation fell slightly, but the manufacturing recession continued. The labor market was stable, and inflation showed "overall cooling and core stability" [26][28][29]. - China: In the first three quarters, the economy grew steadily. Investment declined, consumption slowed, and exports showed strong resilience. The price index showed some repair, and the PMI indicated overall stable production and operation but a weak manufacturing demand [34][44][50]. Market Trend Judgment - Overseas, the Fed's policy shift is significant, and future policies are uncertain. The eurozone economy depends on the service industry in the short - term and needs to solve multiple challenges in the long - term. - Domestically, the economy in the first three quarters was in line with expectations. In the fourth quarter, Sino - US relations are easing, and fiscal policies will support the economy to achieve the annual target [56][57][58]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Overseas economic trends, monetary policy changes, US tariff policy evolution, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand [60]. 3.2 Aluminum: Off - season Downstream Start - up Cools, but High - level Support Remains Market Operation Logic - Cost Side: In October, domestic bauxite prices rose slightly, and overseas prices fell. The supply of domestic bauxite was tight, and the impact of the Guinea rainy season on imports was still being felt. In 2025, the supply of imported bauxite may increase, but the spot resources may still be tight. In October, the output of alumina increased, but the profit was compressed. In November, the market is expected to remain in surplus, and prices will be under pressure. In October, the cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in November [64][72][77]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: In October, production increased, and the aluminum - water ratio rose. In November, winter environmental protection restrictions may affect production, and the aluminum - water ratio is expected to decline. Import losses are large, and the net import volume may exceed last year [80][82]. - Scrap Aluminum: In October, the refined - scrap price difference widened, and the PMI of the recycled aluminum industry declined but remained above the boom - bust line. In November, demand is expected to be boosted, and the industry PMI may continue to expand. The substitution of recycled aluminum for primary aluminum is gradually emerging [86]. - Demand Side: In October, the aluminum processing PMI fell below the boom - bust line. Different sectors have different performances. Demand is transitioning to the off - season. The real estate market is still weak, but the auto market is growing well. In November, the State Grid's order bidding may accelerate, but terminal demand needs to be released [88][91][98]. - Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory: Near the end of October, the supply increased, and demand was weak. In November, the inventory may change from de - stocking to stocking, which will have a negative impact on prices [100]. Market Trend Judgment The Fed is likely to cut rates in December, and domestic fiscal policies will support the economy. Fundamentally, the Guinea rainy - season impact may support alumina prices, but the supply is still loose. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. The monthly price has a support level around 20,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton [105]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Macro - policy games, overseas events, ore - end resumption and shipment, inventory trends, and actual terminal demand [107]. 3.3 Zinc: The External - strong and Internal - weak Pattern Continues, Pay Attention to the Upper Pressure Market Operation Logic - Market Trend in October: Zinc prices fluctuated higher after a correction. Overseas prices were stronger than domestic ones. The market was boosted by overseas rate cuts and low LME inventories in the short - term, but faced long - term surplus pressure [110]. - Zinc Concentrate: Domestic zinc concentrate production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. Overseas production increased significantly in the first half of 2025 and is expected to continue to increase in the second half. In October, processing fees declined, and import losses increased. Port inventories are at a high level in recent years, and the raw - material inventory days of smelters have decreased [113][115][122]. - Refined Zinc: In October, production increased but was lower than expected. In November, production is expected to decline due to factors such as raw - material shortages and profit compression. Zinc ingot imports are at a low level, and the domestic inventory increase pressure may ease. Overseas LME inventories are at a low level, supporting prices [124][127][130]. - Zinc Consumption: The traditional consumption season was under - performing. Galvanized sheet exports may decline in October. The real estate market is still weak, and the impact on zinc demand is limited. The auto market is growing well but may cool slightly in the fourth quarter [132][137][139]. Market Trend Judgment The external - strong and internal - weak pattern will continue. In November, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [9]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No relevant content provided. 3.4 Tin: The Probability of Overseas Supply Increase Rises, and the Price Center of Gravity Faces Downward Risk Market Operation Logic - Mine End: The supply at the mine end is still tight, and the resumption of production in Myanmar is slow. The arrival volume from Congo (Kinshasa) and Australia will increase in October. - Smelting: After the September shutdown and maintenance, refined tin production increased in October, but raw - material shortages in some provinces led to low processing fees. - Downstream Demand: The semiconductor industry supports tin demand, and the auto market has grown rapidly but may slow down at the end of the year. Market Trend Judgment The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [9][10]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No relevant content provided.