Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's "rate cut + halt to balance sheet reduction" signals a major shift in post - pandemic monetary policy. A December rate cut is likely, but future policies will be more flexible and uncertain due to internal US disputes, data gaps from government shutdowns, and inflation stickiness [1][54] - The eurozone economy shows "strengthened stage expansion and intensified structural differentiation." Short - term resilience depends on the service sector, while long - term growth faces challenges such as manufacturing drag, external tariff impacts, and insufficient policy coordination [2][54] - Domestically, the economy in the first three quarters met expectations, showing strong resilience and vitality. Despite pressure on consumption and investment, policies ensure stable growth. Sino - US relations are easing, and fiscal stimulus in Q4 will support the economy [2][55] - The real estate market is neutral to bearish as front - end indicators are declining, and it lacks conditions for a quick recovery [6][84] - Steel exports exceeded 10 million tons in September, with plate leading the growth. Exports are expected to remain above 9 million tons per month in Q4 [7][84] - Steel inventories are higher than usual after the National Day, and if the current destocking rate continues, there will be inventory pressure in November and December, weighing on steel prices [7] - Annual crude steel production may be around 950 million tons, a reduction of 50 million tons, with a decline in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production [7] - The auto market has grown rapidly this year, especially the new - energy vehicle sector, but high - base growth will be difficult in the second half of the year [7] - The home appliance market benefited from policies in the peak season but faces a decline in year - end production scheduling and uncertain exports in Q4, with only a slight annual increase [7] - In November, steel prices are under pressure, with limited room for a sharp decline, and are likely to move lower and then consolidate at a low level [7][85] - In October, the iron ore market had a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, with macro factors driving prices up. In November, trading will return to the real - world situation as macro drivers weaken [12][114] - Iron ore supply pressure may ease in November. Demand will continue to decline, and inventory accumulation may slow down or slightly decline. Prices are expected to trade in a range [12][115] - In October, the coking coal and coke market rebounded. In November, as supply increases steadily, demand faces seasonal decline, and inventory may accumulate, the market's fundamental support may weaken [15][16] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Macro - Fed Cuts Rates as Expected, Domestic Demand Remains Under Pressure - Market Operation Logic - US: In October, the US economy was under pressure with manufacturing and services "double - pressured." The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points and ended balance sheet reduction. Manufacturing was in long - term contraction, services growth slowed sharply, the labor market cooled, and inflation fell more than expected [21][25] - Eurozone: In October, the eurozone economy showed "strengthened stage expansion and intensified structural differentiation." Services drove economic expansion, while manufacturing recovery was weak. The labor market was stable, and inflation was cooling overall [27][29] - Domestic: In Q3, China's GDP grew steadily, with the service sector driving growth. Investment declined, consumption slowed, and exports showed resilience. Price indices showed some recovery, and the PMI indicated stable production [32][50] - Market Trend Judgment - Overseas, the Fed's policy shift and future uncertainties will impact the global financial market. The eurozone's economic future depends on key variables. Domestically, Sino - US relations are easing, and fiscal stimulus in Q4 will support the economy [54][55] - Later Concerns/Risk Factors - Overseas economic trends, monetary policy changes, US tariff policy evolution, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand [57] Part 2: Finished Products - Demand Suppresses Prices, Steel Prices Weakly Operate - Market Operation Logic - Real Estate: The real estate market is neutral to bearish for building materials as investment, sales, and other indicators are declining, and the market is slow to recover [59][60] - Exports: In September, steel exports exceeded 10 million tons again, with high - value - added plates leading. Exports are diversifying, and Q4 exports are expected to remain above 9 million tons per month [64] - Inventory: Steel inventories are accumulating, which will pressure prices in November and December if the current destocking rate continues [66] - Crude Steel Production: Crude steel production is decreasing, and annual production may be around 950 million tons, with rebar production falling and hot - rolled coil production rising [7][70] - Automobile Market: The automobile market is growing rapidly, especially the new - energy vehicle sector. However, high - base growth will be difficult in the second half of the year [71][74] - Home Appliance Market: Home appliance production scheduling is declining in November. Exports are showing differentiation, and the market may slow down in Q4 with a slight annual increase [75][82] - Market Trend Judgment - Steel prices in November are under pressure, with limited room for a sharp decline, and are likely to move lower and then consolidate at a low level [85] - Later Concerns/Risk Factors - Changes in US trade policy and the introduction of unexpected domestic macro - stimulus policies [87] Part 3: Iron Ore - Macro Enters a Vacuum Period, Market Returns to Reality - Market Operation Logic - Market Review: In October, the iron ore market had a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, with macro factors driving prices up. The industry reality was weak, but macro expectations were positive [12][89] - Supply: In October, imports increased for four consecutive months, and domestic production declined. In November, supply pressure may ease due to Australian mine maintenance and weak prices [92][101] - Demand: In October, domestic demand weakened, and exports had limited growth. In November, demand will continue to decline, and restocking demand may support prices [102] - Inventory: In October, port inventory accumulated due to strong supply and weak demand. In November, inventory accumulation may slow down or slightly decline [107] - Market Trend Judgment - As macro drivers weaken in November, the iron ore market will return to reality. Prices are expected to trade in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/ton for the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures, corresponding to about 100 - 105 US dollars/ton for the overseas market [114][116] - Later Concerns/Risk Factors - Stability of overseas ore shipments, domestic policy increments, and the speed of steel mill profit decline [118] Part 4: Coking Coal and Coke - Prices Trade in a Range, Pay Attention to Demand Resilience - Market Operation Logic - Market Review in October 2025: In October, coking coal and coke prices rebounded due to a warm macro - environment and fundamental support [121][123] - Coking Coal: Coal production may increase steadily in November. Imports are rising, but demand may decline seasonally, and inventory may accumulate [124][130] - Coke: The coke market follows the coking coal market. The key lies in demand, and if steel mills' profits deteriorate further, it will limit price rebounds [16] - Market Trend Judgment - In November, the coking coal and coke market's fundamental support may weaken, and prices will trade in a range [16] - Later Concerns/Risk Factors - Production rhythm of coking coal, coke, and steel, changes in imported coal volume, and demand negative - feedback pressure transmission [16]
2025年11月份黑色金属分析报告：淡季需求承压，黑金驱动不足
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-11-06 08:58