瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US employment market has shown signs of stabilization after two consecutive months of decline, with the ADP employment increase in October significantly exceeding expectations. The import volume of zinc ore has risen, with long - term agreement ores from previous smelter contracts arriving at ports, and refineries are making raw material reserves for winter production. However, the domestic zinc ore processing fee has decreased, and the sulfuric acid price has dropped, leading to a significant contraction in smelter profits, with some incurring losses. Although new production capacities are being released, the growth of refined zinc output is limited. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a projected shift to net exports. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" is weak, with the real estate sector being a drag, while policy support in the automotive and home appliance sectors brings some bright spots. The downstream demand recovery is insufficient, and the market mainly makes on - demand purchases at low prices. Domestic inventory has decreased, while LME inventory has increased, and the spot premium is at a low level. Technically, there is an increase in positions and price adjustment, with greater divergence between bulls and bears. It is recommended to hold light - position long positions or take profit on long positions at high prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,675 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 35 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,054.5 dollars/ton, down 23 dollars. The total Shanghai zinc open interest is 225,651 lots, up 2,453 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 12,594 lots, down 2,019 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 68,022 tons, down 401 tons. The SHFE inventory is 103,416 tons, down 5,752 tons; the LME inventory is 34,000 tons, up 175 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 175 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 spread is 98.23 dollars/ton, down 40.55 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons. The zinc social inventory is 162,200 tons, down 1,200 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 12.67%, down 1.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 12.67%, down 1.46 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.52%, down 1.39 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.32%, down 0.01 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, the largest increase since July 2025, exceeding the expected 28,000. The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in October reached 52.4, the highest since February 2025. The State Council will continue to suspend the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on US imports for one year, retaining the 10% rate. In October, the national new - energy passenger vehicle retail sales reached 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%, with a penetration rate of 58.7%. Chinese Premier Li Qiang attended the opening ceremony of the 8th China International Import Expo and stated that China will focus on high - quality development and promote high - level opening - up [3].