Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-06 09:16Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The US employment market shows signs of stabilization after two consecutive months of decline, with the ADP employment in October increasing by 42,000, significantly exceeding the expected 30,000. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply of nickel resources, increasing the cost of supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is at a high level, but the grade of nickel ore has declined, and the domestic nickel ore inventory is lower than the same period last year. The new electrolytic nickel projects are slowly put into production, and due to low nickel prices and cost - side pressure, some smelters are losing money and reducing production, so the growth of refined nickel production is expected to be limited. On the demand side, the peak season of stainless - steel mills is not prosperous, but the cost of nickel - iron has decreased, and the profit of steel mills has improved, so the planned production volume is expected to increase. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, contributing a small increase in demand for ternary batteries. The domestic nickel inventory continues to increase, and the market mainly purchases on demand, with the spot premium rising. The LME inventory overseas also shows an increase. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate and adjust. Technically, the price drops with increasing positions, the short - selling sentiment heats up, and the lower limit of the range is being tested. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 119,750 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan; the spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,015 US dollars/ton, down 45 US dollars. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 118,664 lots, an increase of 3,500 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 33,684 lots, a decrease of 1,648 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 253,128 tons, an increase of 378 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 36,751 tons (weekly), an increase of 676 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 6,540 tons, an increase of 114 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 32,689 tons, a decrease of 240 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 120,500 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 120,700 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 750 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 210.37 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.3 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 million tons, a decrease of 23.22 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,479.1 million tons (weekly), a decrease of 18.81 million tons. The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 56.72 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.61 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron production is 2.17 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.03 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 108.53 million tons, an increase of 21.12 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 2.48 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 176.27 million tons, and the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.08 million tons, an increase of 0.41 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, the largest increase since July 2025, higher than the market expectation of 28,000. The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in October was 52.4, the highest since February 2025. The State Council will adjust the additional tariff measures on imported goods from the US starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025. The 24% additional tariff rate on the US will continue to be suspended for one year, and the 10% additional tariff rate on the US will be retained. According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, in October, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market reached 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%, and the penetration rate of new - energy retail sales in the passenger car market was 58.7%. Premier Li Qiang attended the opening ceremony of the 8th China International Import Expo and delivered a keynote speech, stating that China will adhere to economic construction as the center, focus on high - quality development, and unswervingly promote high - level opening - up [3].