瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production of urea enterprises continues to increase this week, and the probability of an increase in production is high considering short - term enterprise failures. Agricultural demand release has slowed down, and urea enterprises have made appropriate concessions in transactions. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has rebounded due to improved sales, and industrial demand has increased appropriately. However, the operating rate of compound fertilizers is expected to decline steadily or slightly next week. There is no obvious trend of concentrated port exports recently, and supply and demand are mainly concentrated in the domestic market. The inventory of some urea enterprises maintains a weak balance, and the inventory may continue to accumulate in the short term. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1650 in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea is 1644 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 11; the 1 - 5 spread is - 83 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1; the position of the main contract is 275142 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 2887; the net position of the top 20 is - 31611, with a week - on - week decrease of 1734; the exchange warehouse receipts are 3900, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, and Shandong remain unchanged, the price in Jiangsu increases by 10 yuan/ton, and the price in Anhui decreases by 10 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remain unchanged. The basis of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea is - 64 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11 [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 110,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1.5781 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 23,800 tons. The operating rate of urea enterprises is 82.71%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.39%; the daily output is 187,900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5300 tons. The export volume is 1.37 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 570,000 tons; the monthly output is 5,738,670 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 190,010 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 31.04%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.33%; the operating rate of melamine is 49.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.68%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers is 116 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is 124 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 96 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 4.6618 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 25,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1300 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of November 5, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.5781 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 23,800 tons and a week - on - week increase of 1.53%. As of November 6, the port inventory is 79,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 28.18%. As of November 6, the production of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.3545 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 39,200 tons and a week - on - week increase of 2.98%; the capacity utilization rate is 82.71%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.39% [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]