瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is expected to be in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and boosted demand. The option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The cast aluminum alloy market may face a situation of slowing supply and increasing demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position trades with a slightly bullish trend, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Positions: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,630 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,787 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The main - contract positions of Shanghai aluminum and alumina both increased [2]. - Spreads and Ratios: The main - to - second - contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is - 70 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main - to - second - contract spread of alumina is - 40 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.60, up 0.14 [2]. - Inventories: LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,125 tons to 550,450 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased by 4,594 tons to 113,574 tons; alumina inventory increased by 8,704 tons to 248,311 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 21,360 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,790 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 255 yuan/ton, down 455 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 270 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan; the basis of alumina is 3 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and Demand: Alumina production increased by 7.42 tons to 799.90 tons, while demand decreased by 21.49 tons to 704.31 tons. The supply - demand balance of alumina increased by 18.12 tons to 46.85 tons [2]. - Imports and Exports: Alumina exports increased by 7 tons to 25 tons, and imports decreased by 3.44 tons to 6 tons. The import of aluminum scrap decreased by 17,195.97 tons to 155,414.40 tons, and the export increased by 15.31 tons to 68.54 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply - side: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,523.20 tons, unchanged. The production of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase slightly due to the commissioning and resumption of previous capacity replacement and technological transformation projects [2]. - Demand - side: The production of aluminum products increased by 35.18 tons to 590 tons, and the production of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots increased by 2.06 tons to 65.65 tons. The demand for downstream aluminum products is boosted by the development of new energy vehicles and other fields [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Production: The production of automobiles increased by 47.42 million to 322.65 million. The production of aluminum alloy is 177.60 tons, unchanged [2]. - Indices: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 92.78, down 0.27 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The purchase - to - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.43, down 0.072 compared to the previous period, and the implied volatility decreased slightly [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In October, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The penetration rate of new - energy retail sales in the passenger vehicle market is 58.7% [2]. - The US government shutdown has entered its 36th day, which may reduce the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter by up to 2 percentage points [2]. - China will continue to suspend the implementation of the 24% tariff on US - imported goods for one year, retaining a 10% tariff [2].