瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20251106

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply; Indonesian ferronickel production remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, ferronickel prices have dropped significantly, leading to a decline in raw material costs [2]. - On the supply side, steel mills' production profits have been restored. With the end of the traditional consumption peak season and expectations of infrastructure and real - estate demand, stainless steel mills are expected to increase production, increasing supply pressure [2]. - On the demand side, the peak season for downstream demand is not prosperous. Market procurement willingness is low, and overall inquiries and transactions are average. Therefore, the national stainless steel social inventory shows a narrow increase [2]. - Technically, open interest increases while prices fall, indicating increased divergence between bulls and bears. There is a downward channel trend, and attention should be paid to the support at the 12,400 level. It is recommended to hold previous short positions or wait and see [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,590 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the spread between the December - January contracts is - 20 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 9,539 lots, down 1,821 lots; the open interest of the main contract is 68,420 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 72,462 tons, down 838 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B cut - edge coils in Wuxi is 13,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 430 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 21,700 metal tons, down 300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, up 211,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 120,500 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 920 yuan/nickel point, down 5 yuan [2]. - The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, up 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 580,800 tons, up 4,100 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 45.399 million square meters, up 5.59799 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, up 4,000 units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, down 500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, up 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In October, the US ADP employment increased by 42,000, the largest increase since July 2025, higher than the market expectation of 28,000. The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in October was 52.4, the highest since February 2025 [2]. - The State Council will adjust the additional tariff measures on US - originated imported goods from 13:01 on November 10, 2025. The 24% additional tariff rate on US goods will be suspended for one year, and the 10% additional tariff rate will be retained [2]. - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, in October, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The penetration rate of new - energy retail sales in the passenger car market was 58.7% [2]. - Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council, attended the opening ceremony of the 8th China International Import Expo and delivered a keynote speech, stating that China will focus on high - quality development and promote high - level opening - up [2].