瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - After the price decline, the reluctance of retail farmers to sell provides short - term support for the price, narrowing the decline of the spot price. However, the supply pressure remains in the future, and the overall price is still restricted. The live hog 2601 contract on the futures market rose slightly and is in short - term shock adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live hogs was 11,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 132,466 lots, a decrease of 3,917 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 0 lots, a decrease of 90 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 31,553 lots, a decrease of 296 lots [3] 3.2 Spot Price - The live hog price in Zhumadian, Henan was 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Siping, Jilin was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunfu, Guangdong was 12,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The main live hog basis was - 140 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The live hog inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 12.33 million heads; the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 30,000 heads [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI was - 0.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,060 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; the corn spot price was 2,236.47 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.18 yuan/ton; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 898.59, an increase of 5.45; the monthly feed output was 31.287 million tons, an increase of 2.015 million tons; the price of binary reproductive sows was 1,515 yuan/head, a decrease of 15 yuan/head; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 179.72 yuan/head, an increase of 109.35 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live hogs was - 89.33 yuan/head, an increase of 96.35 yuan/head; the monthly pork import volume was 80,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 13.8 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.3 yuan/kg [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 35.84 million heads, an increase of 2.34 million heads; the monthly catering revenue in total social consumer retail sales was 450.86 billion yuan, an increase of 12.9 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Industry News - According to Mysteel data, in October 2025, the number of newly - born piglets in the national designated samples was 5.7813 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.82%, and the sales volume of piglets was 525,900, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04%. Due to the previous decline in pig prices, the reluctance of retail farmers in some areas to sell and resist prices has increased. Although the data from information agencies shows that the planned slaughter volume in November decreased month - on - month, the slaughter pressure still exists based on the previous inventory of reproductive sows and data on newly - born piglets. After the price decline, the inquiry for secondary fattening increased [3]