Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-06 09:16Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of November 6, the domestic methanol - to - olefins plant capacity utilization rate was 90.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%. The olefin industry's overall start - up continued to decline this week, and the MA2601 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 2080 - 2150 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest was 1368330 lots, a decrease of 4418 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 257497 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 10854, a decrease of 305 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2065 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton; the East - Northwest price difference was 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 60 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton; the CFR price at the main Chinese port was 241 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 272 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 82 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price was 4.24 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.07 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 102.15 tons, an increase of 2.42 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 49.56 tons, a decrease of 1.36 tons; the methanol import profit was - 4.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises was 386400 tons, an increase of 10300 tons; the methanol enterprise start - up rate was 86.73%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde start - up rate was 40.29%, an increase of 1.42 percentage points; the dimethyl ether start - up rate was 5.82%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points; the acetic acid start - up rate was 73.47%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points; the MTBE start - up rate was 67.98%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points; the olefin start - up rate was 90.27%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 704 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 20.84%, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 16.9%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 19.63%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 19.65%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of November 5, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 38.64 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04 tons or 2.75%; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 22.11 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 tons or 2.57%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 151.71 tons, an increase of 1.06 tons. The inventory at East China ports increased by 2.42 tons, while that at South China ports decreased by 1.36 tons. Recently, the production capacity loss due to domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts was less than the output from the restored production capacity, and the overall output increased [2].