Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-06 09:23Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The tin market presents a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels. Technically, with a decline in positions and price corrections, the bullish sentiment has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for now, focusing on the range of 280,000 - 286,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin was 283,420 yuan/ton, up 1,330 yuan; the closing price of the December - January contract of Shanghai tin was - 230 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; LME 3 - month tin was 35,745 US dollars/ton, up 75 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai tin was 30,385 lots, down 2,237 lots; the net position of the top 20 in futures of Shanghai tin was - 772 lots, down 235 lots; LME tin total inventory was 2,940 tons, up 80 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 5,919 tons, up 153 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin were 5,865 tons, down 94 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 282,800 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 283,060 yuan/ton, up 1,630 yuan; the basis of the main Shanghai tin contract was - 620 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 39.5 US dollars/ton, down 25.5 US dollars; the import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 0.87 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate was 270,800 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 274,800 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin was 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu was 183,300 yuan/ton, up 1,130 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.1093 million tons, up 0.1448 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 0.1976 million tons, up 0.031 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, the US ADP employment increased by 42,000 people, the largest increase since July 2025, higher than the market expectation of 28,000 people; the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in October was 52.4, the highest since February 2025. The State Council will continue to suspend the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on US - imported goods for one year from November 10, 2025, and retain the 10% additional tariff rate. In October, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%, with a penetration rate of 58.7% [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The US employment market shows signs of stabilization. In the fourth quarter, the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar is expected to increase steadily but with limited increments, while imports from Africa and Australia decline unexpectedly. Indonesia plans to accelerate the release of refined tin exports in the fourth quarter. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the processing fee of tin ore remains low; in Jiangxi, the waste recycling system is under pressure, and the production of refined tin is still limited. In the demand side, the spot market of tin ingots is relatively active, and domestic inventory remains stable while LME inventory increases slightly [3]