瑞达期货国债期货日报-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic fundamentals' continuous repair and the implementation of broad fiscal policies require a low - interest - rate environment. The market generally expects the central bank to purchase medium - and short - term bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially drive long - term interest rates down. However, there is a need to be vigilant about the potential suppression of long - term interest rates by the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices and Volumes: T, TF, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.09%, 0.03%, and 0.28% respectively, while the TS main contract rose 0.01%. T, TF, and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 10433, 628, and 8267 respectively, and the TS main contract volume increased by 8855 [2]. - Futures Spreads: The spreads of TL2512 - 2603, T2512 - 2603, TF2512 - 2603, and TS2512 - 2603 changed by - 0.03, + 0.02, + 0.00, and + 0.01 respectively. Other spreads also had corresponding changes [2]. - Futures Positions: T, TF, and TL main contract positions decreased by 1354, 835, and 2186 respectively, while the TS main contract position increased by 894. The net short positions of T decreased by 165, while those of TF, TS, and TL increased by 1591, 621, and 88 respectively [2]. 3.2 CTD and Active Bonds - CTD Net Prices: Most CTD net prices decreased, such as 220017.IB decreasing by 0.1185, 250018.IB decreasing by 0.0744, etc., while 250012.IB increased by 0.0038 [2]. - Active Bond Yields: The yields of 1y, 3y, 7y, and 10y active bonds changed by 0bp, + 1bp, + 0.05bp, and + 0.25bp respectively, while the yields of 5y decreased by 0.15bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - Short - term Interest Rates: The silver - pledged overnight and Shibor overnight rates decreased by 4.23bp and 0.20bp respectively, while the silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 1.50bp and the Shibor 7 - day rate decreased by 0.20bp [2]. - LPR Rates: The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market operations was 92.8 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 342.6 billion yuan, and the net investment was - 249.8 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Industry News - China announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including canceling and suspending a number of reciprocal tariff measures [2]. - China's October S&P Services PMI was 52.6, and the Composite PMI was 51.8 [2]. - Premier Li Qiang attended the opening ceremony of the 8th China International Import Expo and stated that China will adhere to high - quality development and high - level opening - up [2]. 3.6 Market Situation - On Thursday, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened collectively, and treasury bond futures showed short - term strength and medium - to long - term weakness. The DR007 weighted average rate fluctuated around 1.43%. The central bank's net investment in open - market treasury bond trading in October was 2 billion yuan [2]. - Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in October decreased by 0.8% to 49%, while the non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range. Overseas, the US ADP added 42,000 new jobs in October, but the labor market recovery outlook remains unclear. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and will end the balance - sheet reduction on December 1st [2]. 3.7 Key Events to Watch - On November 6th at 22:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest - rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report. - On November 10th at 07:50, the Bank of Japan will announce the summary of the opinions of the deliberation members of the October monetary policy meeting [3].