股指期货日报：股指放量上涨，板块轮动显著-20251106

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Today, the stock index opened high and closed high, with the trading volume of the two markets rebounding to over 2 trillion yuan. The latest ADP data released by the US last night showed an unexpected rebound in employment, which somewhat dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts. After the data release, the US Treasury yield and the US dollar index both turned up, and the US dollar index subsequently declined. However, due to the continuous stagnation of wage growth and the inflation pressure indicated by the input price index released by the US ISM, the market's bet on the probability of an interest rate cut in December has decreased but is still higher than the probability of no cut, which has little impact on the A-share market. In terms of the basis of stock index futures, except for the deepening of the discount of the current and next quarterly contracts of IH, the discounts of the rest have converged, indicating an improvement in market sentiment. However, today, despite the collective rise of the indices, stocks did not show a general upward trend, with a rise-fall ratio of only 1.2. The rising sectors were mainly those that had corrected significantly recently, indicating significant sector rotation. Therefore, it is expected that the stock index will continue to fluctuate in the short term [4]. Market Review - Today, the stock indices closed higher across the board. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed up 1.43%. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets rebounded by 182.906 billion yuan. Stock index futures all rose with shrinking volumes [2]. Important Information - The US "small non-farm payrolls" ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations, while wage growth continued to stagnate. The US employment market showed signs of stabilization after two consecutive months of decline. The ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, significantly exceeding the expected 30,000 and reversing the situation of a revised decrease of 29,000 last month [3]. - The US ISM Services PMI in October rebounded unexpectedly, reaching an eight-month high, and the price payment index reached a three-year high. The US ISM Services PMI in October was 52.4, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50. The new order index jumped to a one-year high. While demand rebounded, inflation pressure became more obvious. The input price index rose to 70, the highest level in three years. The employment situation is stabilizing, although the relevant index is still in contraction [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [5]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 1.39 | 1.04 | 1.69 | 1.03 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.1413 | 5.1481 | 13.3488 | 20.343 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | -0.5203 | -0.1639 | -1.3675 | -3.5254 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.4651 | 9.6234 | 24.9495 | 34.9856 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | -0.5389 | -0.0744 | -0.694 | -1.6927 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.97 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.73 | | Stock rise-fall ratio | 1.20 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 2055.248 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (billion yuan) | 182.906 | [7]