银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Despite better-than-expected US small non - farm ADP data and ISM non - manufacturing data, precious metal prices remained in the previous consolidation range due to multiple risk factors. Uncertainties include the record - breaking US government shutdown and the Supreme Court's debate on the legality of Trump - era tariffs. It is expected that precious metals will continue the adjustment trend in the future [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals fluctuated higher during the day. London gold stood back at the $4000 mark, trading at $4006, and London silver traded around the $48.5 mark. Driven by the external market, Shanghai gold closed up 0.79% at 917.8 yuan/gram, while the main Shanghai silver contract closed down 1.99% at 11427 yuan/kilogram [3] - The US dollar index fell below the 100 - dollar mark, trading around 99.99 [4] - The 10 - year US Treasury yield declined slightly, trading around 4.136% [5] - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose slightly, trading around 7.1224 [6] Important Information - US government dynamics: The US Supreme Court's debate on a tariff case opened, and the probability of Trump winning decreased. Trump's request to end the "lengthy debate" was rejected. Two Democratic leaders wrote to Trump for face - to - face negotiations, but Trump insisted on not negotiating until Democrats voted to restart the government. The shutdown will cut the capacity of 40 major US airports by 10% [7] - US macro data: The US October ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4, expected 50.8, and the previous value was 50. The US October ADP employment was 42,000, the largest increase since July 2025, expected 28,000, and the previous value was - 32,000 [7] - Fed observation: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 62.5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 37.5%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 54.8%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 25.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 19.4% [7] Logic Analysis - Due to multiple risk factors such as the government shutdown and the tariff case, precious metals are in a pattern with both upward pressure and downward support, and are expected to continue the adjustment trend [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Mainly operate with a band - trading mindset [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see [13] Data Reference - The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, real yields and precious metals, domestic and foreign futures trends, futures - spot trends, internal - external price differences, gold - silver ratios, ETF holdings, futures trading volumes, futures inventories, trading volumes, TD data, and Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates, with data sources from Flush iFinD and Galaxy Futures [16][19][22]