银河期货农产品日报：苹果日报-20251106

Group 1: Market Information - The Fuji apple price index was 107.18, down 0.43 from the previous trading day; the average wholesale price of 6 fruits was 6.94, down 0.22 [2] - Futures prices: AP01 was 8919, down 21; AP05 was 9112, down 66; AP10 was 8256, down 28 [2] - Basis: No valid data for the basis of Qixia first and second - grade 80 apples against futures contracts was available [2] Group 2: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of November 6, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 51.68%, and the inventory was 6.8274 million tons, 10.62 percentage points lower and 17.04% lower than the same period last year respectively [4] - As of November 5, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 6.9842 million tons, 1.1502 million tons lower (a 14.14% decline) than the same period last year [4] - In September 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 0.97 million tons, a 17.85% month - on - month and 1.10% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative import volume from January to September was 10.81 million tons, a 19.49% year - on - year increase. The export volume in September was about 7.08 million tons, a 3.50% month - on - month increase and 6.32% year - on - year decrease [4] - The mainstream transaction price in the market was stable. The large - scale trading points in rural areas gradually withdrew, and the supply in the acquisition market decreased slightly. The price of high - quality goods changed little. In the northwest production area, the storage period was coming to an end, with only a small number of areas still having transactions. The market arrivals were stable, and the sales of high - quality goods were smooth with stable prices [4] - The mainstream transaction price of apples in Luochuan, Yan'an, Shaanxi was stable, with the 70 and above semi - commercial apples priced at 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per jin, high - end at 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per jin, and low - end at 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per jin. The price of juice apples was 0.2 yuan per jin [5] Trading Logic - This year, apple production decreased, the high - quality fruit rate was poor, and storage was more difficult. The cold - storage inventory data is likely to be lower than last year. Although there are still apples to be stored, the effective inventory is likely to be low. However, the current futures price is at a high level, with a significant increase in positions and greater market divergence, so short - term risks are relatively high [6] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Although the apple fundamentals are strong, the price is at a high level, and there is a large divergence between bulls and bears. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7] Group 3: Related Attachments - The attachments include 10 charts, such as the price of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, and the price difference between different AP contracts, as well as data on apple arrivals and cold - storage inventory [10][12][18]