银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251106

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the current laying - hen inventory remains high. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively slow. Considering that the current spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per catty and the December main contract has given a certain premium, the upside potential is expected to be relatively limited [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices: JD01 closed at 3386, up 1 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3498, down 11; JD09 closed at 3854, down 13 [2]. - Cross - month Spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was - 112, up 12; the 05 - 09 spread was - 356, up 2; the 09 - 01 spread was 468, down 14 [2]. - Price Ratios: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, down 0.01; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.10, unchanged. Similar trends were observed for other contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Egg Prices: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.93 yuan per catty, up 0.06 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. The average price in the main selling areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, unchanged [2][4]. - Culled Chicken Prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 3.99 yuan per catty, unchanged [2][6]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - Inventory: In October, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.1 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. It is estimated that the laying - hen inventory from November 2025 to February 2026 will be 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - Chick Hatch: In October, the monthly chick hatch of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, with little change from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 13% [5]. - Culled Chicken Volume: In the week of October 31, the culled chicken volume in the main producing areas was 20.53 million, an increase of 11% from the previous week. The average culling age was 494 days, a decrease of 5 days from the previous week [5]. - Egg Sales Volume: As of the week of October 31, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7658 tons, an increase of 2.1% from the previous week [5]. - Profit: As of the week of October 31, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was - 0.2 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.02 yuan per catty from the previous week. The expected profit of laying - hen farming was - 4.82 yuan per chicken, an increase of 1.42 yuan per catty from the previous week [6]. - Inventory Days: As of the week of October 31, the average inventory days in the production and circulation links were 1.04 days and 1.1 days respectively, unchanged from the previous week [6]. 3.4 Trading Logic The recent increase in culled chickens has relieved supply pressure, but the high laying - hen inventory persists. The short - term de - capacity speed will be slow, and the upside potential of the market is limited [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Single - side Trading: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9].