银河期货航运日报-20251106

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The upward momentum of freight rates in the second half of November is insufficient, and the EC futures market declined on November 6. Spot freight rates show that the long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, but the upward momentum in the second half of November has weakened. The demand from November to December is expected to gradually improve, but attention should be paid to the impact of possible tariff adjustments on the shipping rhythm. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 Nordic ports is increasing. Short - term attention should be paid to the shipping companies' cargo - collecting performance and the impact of the adjusted last trading day on the EC2602 contract valuation [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts decreased, with declines of - 5.03%, - 3.09%, - 1.80%, - 0.83%, - 0.88%, and - 0.25% respectively. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, except for EC2608 and EC2610 which increased by 44.58% and 116.94% respectively. The positions of most contracts decreased, except for EC2602 which increased by 1.22% and EC2610 which increased by 12.23% [6]. - The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the spread of EC12 - EC02 decreased by 46.8, and the spread of EC12 - EC04 decreased by 76.2 [6]. 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European Line index was 1208.71 points, with a week - on - week decrease of - 7.92% and a year - on - year decrease of - 46.48%. SCFIS US West Line index was 1267.15 points, with a week - on - week increase of 14.43% and a year - on - year decrease of - 54.40%. The SCFI comprehensive index was 1550.70 points, with a week - on - week increase of 10.49% and a year - on - year decrease of - 29.04% [6]. 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month contract was $59.48 per barrel, with a current ratio decrease of - 1.13% and a year - on - year decrease of - 16.69%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month contract was $63.28 per barrel, with a current ratio decrease of - 1.03% and a year - on - year decrease of - 15.4% [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.2.1 Market Analysis - MSK's WK47 weekly quote of $2250 was lower than market expectations, and the upward momentum of freight rates in the second half of November was insufficient, leading to a decline in the EC futures market. The spot price of SCFIS European Line decreased by 7.9%, slightly exceeding market expectations, mainly due to the change in the settlement index rhythm caused by the rolling and delay of some ships in the second half of October. Maersk expects the interference in the Red Sea area to last for a whole year and is cautious about the fourth - quarter development due to a large number of new ships entering the market. The Ministry of Commerce announced the adjustment of relevant restrictions on the US from November 10, and attention should be paid to the impact on shipping volume and rhythm [7]. 3.2.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: It is expected that the shipping companies' upward momentum in the second half of November will weaken, and the futures market has already factored in peak - season expectations. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9][10]. 3.3 Industry News - Maersk has selected New Times Shipbuilding to build 8 + 4 18000TEU dual - fuel LNG - powered container ships, with new ships expected to be delivered from 2028 to 2029. The total cost of all 12 ships will reach $2.316 billion if the optional orders are confirmed [10]. - The EU - China Chamber of Commerce expressed deep concern about the EU's investigation into the so - called subsidy issue of Chinese enterprises, emphasizing that the EU's "Foreign Subsidies Regulation" should not be used as a unilateral tool for protectionism [10].