供需回归平衡，工业硅企稳反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomically, China's economy maintains a long - term stable and positive trend. The sentiment in the domestic industrial products market is boosted by factors such as the Sino - US economic and trade talks reaching a phased consensus, the continued recovery of industrial enterprise profit growth, and the emphasis on high - quality development and green energy transformation [3][49]. - On the supply side, the supply shows a slight growth trend with Xinjiang's high - level production, a small decline in production in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - water period, and the inability of Gansu and Inner Mongolia to maintain production growth. Social inventory is rising at a high level [3][21][49]. - On the demand side, the photovoltaic industry is in a new balance cycle with both supply and demand contracting. Traditional industries like organic silicon and aluminum alloy maintain a certain degree of resilience, which is conducive to stabilizing the basic consumption of industrial silicon. In November, the demand side is expected to continue structural adjustments [3][39][49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 October Industrial Silicon Market Review 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon Futures Price - In October 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a stable and rising trend. The main 2512 contract traded between 8800 - 9310 yuan/ton, with the price center slightly higher than the previous month. The price at the end of the month was 9100 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 5.3% [8]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - The overall spot market was stable. The average production cost in October was 9095.95 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from the previous month. The overall furnace - opening rate rose slightly to 40.2%. The prices of mainstream grades were generally stable, with some expected to rise slightly in November [9][10][12]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes high - quality development, including strengthening the top - level design of artificial intelligence, building a new energy system, and promoting green energy transformation. It also aims to develop emerging pillar industries and future industries, which will bring new economic growth points [14][18][19]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Production - In October, Xinjiang's silicon enterprise operating rate rose above 80%, while the production in Sichuan and Yunnan decreased during the flat - water period. Gansu and Inner Mongolia failed to maintain growth. The national industrial silicon production in October was 45.2 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%, and the cumulative production from January to October was 346.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.2% [21]. 3.3.2 Exports - From January to September, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 56.2 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In September, the export volume was 7.02 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. It is expected that the export volume in November will remain between 7 - 8 tons [26]. 3.3.3 Inventory - By the end of October, the social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 55.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 7.32% month - on - month. It is expected that the social inventory will decline at a high level in November [30]. 3.3.4 Downstream Demand - Polysilicon production increased in October, but the market is concerned about the follow - up of the new platform. Silicon wafer production is expected to decline due to reduced overseas demand. The battery and component markets are also facing challenges, but the component market demand is gradually improving. Organic silicon has limited price - support space, and the fundamentals have not significantly improved. The aluminum alloy market is in the peak season, with stable production and processing fees, and the production is expected to continue to increase in November [34][37][38]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the domestic industrial products market sentiment is boosted. The supply side shows a slight growth, and the demand side will continue structural adjustments. The photovoltaic industry may enter a new balance cycle, and traditional industries will maintain a certain degree of resilience [3][49].