Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-06 09:37Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly output of rebar decreased, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 45.72%, remaining at a low level. Terminal demand declined, but inventory has been falling for four consecutive weeks. Recently, rebar prices have been falling continuously, and the weak expectations have been realized. The mainstream positions reduced short positions and increased long positions, and the downward momentum weakened. Short - term market trends may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA cross upward at a low level, and the green column turns red. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,037 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; RB main contract position: 2,020,353 lots, down 11,428 lots; RB contract top 20 net position: - 113,415 lots, up 24,033 lots; RB1 - 5 contract spread: - 65 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 140,134 tons, unchanged; HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 219 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight) price: 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight) price: 3,303 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight) price: 3,280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight) price: 3,180 yuan/ton, unchanged; RB main contract basis: 183 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 100 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore powder: 782 yuan/wet ton, up 7 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,640 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,190 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 2,930 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; 45 - port iron ore inventory: 145.3924 million tons, up 1.1859 million tons; Sample coking plant coke inventory: 374,400 tons, up 700 tons; Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.2888 million tons, down 43,900 tons; 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 81.73%, down 3 percentage points; Tangshan billet inventory: 1.2 million tons, down 30,000 tons; 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 88.59%, up 0.43 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill rebar output: 2.0854 million tons, down 40,500 tons; Sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate: 45.72%, down 0.88 percentage points; Sample steel mill rebar inventory: 1.6684 million tons, down 48,700 tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory: 4.257 million tons, down 51,100 tons; Independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 67.71%, unchanged; Domestic crude steel output: 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; Chinese rebar monthly output: 1.541 million tons, up 66,000 tons; Steel net export volume: 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - National real estate climate index: 92.78, down 0.27; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment: - 0.50%, down 1 percentage point; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment: - 13.90%, down 1 percentage point; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment: 1.10%, down 0.9 percentage point; Cumulative value of housing construction area: 6.4858 billion square meters, down 54.71 million square meters; Cumulative value of new housing construction area: 453.99 million square meters, down 55.98 million square meters; Commercial housing unsold area: 399.37 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On November 6, Mysteel information showed that the actual rebar output was 2.0854 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,500 tons; the factory inventory was 1.6684 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 48,700 tons; the social inventory was 4.257 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 51,100 tons; the total inventory was 5.9254 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 99,800 tons; the apparent demand was 2.1852 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 136,600 tons. In October 2025, the total bond financing of the real estate industry was 51.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 76.9%. Affected by the low base in the same period of the previous year, the total bond financing of real estate enterprises increased significantly. On Thursday, the RB2601 contract first declined and then rose. The State Council Tariff Commission announced that starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, it will adjust the additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the United States, and continue to suspend the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on the United States for one year, while retaining the 10% additional tariff rate [2].