贵金属策略报告-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Core Logic - In the short - term, although the negative impact of the China - US talks has been realized, risks such as geopolitical changes and the US government shutdown still exist. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is slowing down [1]. - The results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have been announced. The US government shutdown has reached 35 days, tying the longest record in history. The US Supreme Court questions the legitimacy of Trump's tariffs, focusing on whether the authorization of the "Emergency State Law" has been abused [1]. - The path of the Fed's interest rate cut has changed, and internal differences are intensifying. Many Fed officials have expressed concerns about the possibility of another interest rate cut in December in different forms. ADP employment data shows that the overall labor demand is still slowing down, and wage growth has been stagnant, adding uncertainty to whether the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in December. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in October, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second interest rate cut this year, and announced the end of the balance - sheet reduction as of December 1. Fed Chairman Powell said that whether to further cut interest rates in December is "far from a foregone conclusion", and the data loss caused by the government shutdown may affect subsequent decisions. Currently, the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December to remain at around 70%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have fallen under pressure [1]. - The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management should be done, and strict stop - loss and take - profit should be set [1][3][7]. Data - International prices: The closing price of the Comex gold main contract is $3990.40 per ounce, up $49.10 (1.25%) from the previous day and up $48.70 (1.24%) from last week. The price of London gold is $3968.20 per ounce, up $17.10 (0.43%) from the previous day and down $38.50 (- 0.96%) from last week [2]. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 917.80 yuan per gram, up 5.54 yuan (0.61%) from the previous day and up 5.64 yuan (0.62%) from last week. The closing price of gold T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 917.51 yuan per gram, up 7.98 yuan (0.88%) from the previous day and up 10.23 yuan (1.13%) from last week [2]. - Other data such as basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and gold ETFs are also provided [2]. Silver Core Logic - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management should be done, and strict stop - loss and take - profit should be set [7]. Data - International prices: The closing price of the Comex silver main contract is $47.86 per ounce, up $0.96 (2.06%) from the previous day and up $0.59 (1.24%) from last week. The price of London silver is $47.61 per ounce, down $0.15 (- 0.31%) from the previous day and down $0.56 (- 1.17%) from last week [7]. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 11427.00 yuan per kilogram, up 151.00 yuan (1.34%) from the previous day and up 174.00 yuan (1.55%) from last week. The closing price of silver T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 11421.00 yuan per kilogram, up 181.00 yuan (1.61%) from the previous day and up 224.00 yuan (2.00%) from last week [7]. - Other data such as basis, spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and silver ETFs are also provided [7]. Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, the Fed's total assets are $66371.78 billion, M2 (year - on - year) is 4.49% [9]. - US Treasury bonds and dollar: The real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is 2.43%, the US dollar index is 100.16, and various US Treasury bond spreads and interest rate differentials are also provided [9][10]. - US economy: GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, GDP (annualized quarter - on - quarter) is 3.80%, the unemployment rate is 4.30%, and other economic data such as employment, consumption, industry, and real estate are also provided [9][10]. - Central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, gold/foreign exchange reserve ratios, geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB data are also provided [10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability distribution of different interest rate ranges at different meeting dates from December 2025 to October 2027 is provided according to the CME FedWatch tool [12].