止跌反弹

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper market has stopped falling and rebounded. The supply - demand tight balance provides support, and the improvement in US employment data boosts the macro - expectation preference, while the strengthening US dollar suppresses the upside space of copper prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved up during the day. The US government shutdown has a negative impact on the market. The US October ADP employment report showed an increase of 42,000 jobs, better than expected. The smelting processing fee is negative and stable, indicating a tight copper ore resource. An accident in the Indonesian copper mine will affect global copper supply until next year. There are still five smelters with maintenance plans in November, and copper production is on a downward trend. Higher copper prices may increase scrap copper supply. The rising copper prices have suppressed downstream demand, and the Shanghai copper inventory has increased slightly [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved up during the day. Spot: The spot premium in East China is 25 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 15 yuan/ton. On November 5, 2025, the LME official price was 10,639.5 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 36.5 dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of November 4, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 42.06 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.13 cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory is 43,900 tons, an increase of 6,456 tons from the previous period. As of November 3, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory is 100,100 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 134,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 363,400 short tons, an increase of 2,005 short tons from the previous period [11]