Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-06 10:16Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - From November 1st to 6th, PE production increased by 2.67% to 660,700 tons week-on-week. From October 24th to 30th, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.4% week-on-week, with the agricultural film operating rate up 2.4% and the packaging film operating rate down 1.3%. As of October 29th, the inventory of PE producers decreased by 19.16% to 416,000 tons week-on-week; as of October 24th, the social PE inventory decreased by 3.30% to 527,400 tons week-on-week. From October 25th to 31st, the cost of oil-based LLDPE increased by 3.53% to 7,389 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the profit decreased by 234.86 yuan/ton to -360 yuan/ton; the cost of coal-based LLDPE increased by 1.12% to 6,845 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the profit increased by 5.57 yuan/ton to 197.86 yuan/ton. L2601 rebounded after a decline, closing at 6,805 yuan/ton. In November, there will be less new maintenance capacity for PE, and two new units of Guangxi Petrochemical are about to be put into operation, resulting in high supply pressure. Affected by the restart of 400,000 tons of Lianyungang Petrochemical and 450,000 tons of Baolai units this week, PE production increased week-on-week. The downstream greenhouse film is in the peak season, and the operating rate of agricultural film is expected to remain high; the orders for packaging film are being delivered successively, and the operating rate is expected to gradually weaken. The inventory of producers and social inventory will continue to decline, and the inventory pressure is not significant. The accumulation of API and EIA inventories in the US, combined with the strengthening of the US dollar, has led to a recent weak and volatile international oil price. In the short term, L2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 6,740 - 6,850 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 6,805 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 6,805 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 6,886 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 6,935 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The trading volume was 305,198 lots, up 14,736 lots; the open interest was 578,172 lots, up 25,025 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was -81, up 6. The buy volume of the top 20 futures positions was 486,769 lots, up 23,574 lots; the sell volume was 565,354 lots, up 21,632 lots; the net buy volume was -78,585 lots, up 1,942 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,877.83 yuan/ton, down 43.48 yuan; the average price in East China was 7,114.76 yuan/ton, down 20.95 yuan. The basis was 72.83, down 34.47 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.57 US dollars per barrel, down 0.02 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 577.5 US dollars per ton, up 1 US dollar. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 731 US dollars per ton, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 741 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 80.86%, down 0.59% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 51.3%, down 1.29%; the operating rate of PE pipes was 32.17%, down 0.16%; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 49.53%, up 2.42% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 9.91%, up 0.34%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.37%, up 0.25%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polyethylene was 10.64%, up 0.72% [2].