Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-06 10:16Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a PVC industry daily report dated November 6, 2025 [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PVC futures contract V2601 fell and then rebounded, closing at 4,630 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate increased, and the operating rates of downstream pipes and profiles rose slightly. Inventory change was small, and the high - inventory accumulation trend slowed down. The cost of the calcium carbide method increased and losses deepened, while the cost of the ethylene method decreased and profits recovered. The high - operating state of PVC may continue. The operating rate of downstream PVC is expected to decline seasonally. Overseas demand is uncertain, and the contradiction between domestic supply and demand is significant, with high inventory pressure likely to persist. Technically, V2601 should focus on the support around 4,570 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. The trading volume was 736,089 lots, a decrease of 32,196 lots. The open interest was 1,315,311 lots, an increase of 33,017 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 198,008 lots, a decrease of 23,628 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.08 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged at 4,780 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,644.38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central, northern, and northwestern regions remained unchanged at 2,800 yuan/ton, 2,673.33 yuan/ton, and 2,508 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The weekly average prices of VCM and EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia remained unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.26%, an increase of 1.69%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 77.43%, an increase of 3.05%, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 80.2%, a decrease of 1.44%. The total social inventory of PVC was 54.46 tons, a decrease of 1.01 tons. The inventory in the East China region was 49.53 tons, a decrease of 0.99 tons, and the inventory in the South China region was 4.93 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45,3990,000 square meters, an increase of 55,979,900 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6,485,800,000 square meters, an increase of 54,710,600 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 9.36%, a decrease of 1.09%. The 40 - day historical volatility remained unchanged at 10.36%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options of PVC was 14.22%, an increase of 0.53% [3] Group 4: Industry News - From October 25th to 31st, the PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69%. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.68% to 50.54%, with the pipe operating rate increasing by 0.8% to 42% and the profile operating rate increasing by 1.96% to 37.83%. As of October 30th, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% to 1.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.09%. From October 25th to 31st, the average cost of the calcium carbide method increased to 5,201 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of the ethylene method decreased to 5,288 yuan/ton. The calcium carbide method profit decreased to - 763 yuan/ton, and the ethylene method profit increased to - 445 yuan/ton [3]