每日核心期货品种分析-20251106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market on November 6, 2025, showed more rising contracts than falling ones. Some commodities like p-xylene, coking coal, and PTA had significant increases, while container shipping to Europe and asphalt declined [6][7]. - The market is influenced by various factors such as international policies (e.g., OPEC+ production decisions), supply - demand dynamics of different commodities, and macro - economic data (e.g., US employment data) [7][9][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Copper - The copper market is in a tight supply - demand balance. Supply is affected by negative smelting processing fees, potential supply disruptions from the Indonesian copper mine accident, and planned smelter overhauls. Demand is somewhat suppressed by rising prices. The US employment data affects the macro - expectation, and the strong dollar restricts the upside of copper prices [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply is increasing as upstream production is active, with high开工 rates. Demand is strong, especially from the energy - storage battery sector, leading to significant inventory reduction. However, due to the uncertainty of official复产 news, caution is advised when chasing the rising price [11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ plans to increase production in December, which will increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve it in the first quarter of next year. The demand peak has ended, and the market is in a supply - surplus situation. Geopolitical factors such as US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the US - Venezuela situation also affect the market, and the price is expected to oscillate [12][13]. Asphalt - Supply has a slight decrease, with开工 rates at a relatively low level. Demand is affected by project construction in the north and price inquiries in the south. With the influence of crude oil price fluctuations and the release of low - price resources, the asphalt futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating [14]. PP - The downstream开工 rate is at a relatively low level, and the supply is affected by new capacity and reduced maintenance. The market lacks large - scale procurement, and with the influence of crude oil and the absence of anti - involution policies, the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [15][16]. Plastic - The开工 rate is at a neutral level, and the downstream开工 rate is relatively low. New capacity is added, and the demand in the peak season is not as expected. With the influence of crude oil and the lack of anti - involution policies, the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [17]. PVC - Supply is increasing with high开工 rates and new capacity. The export expectation is weakening, and the inventory is still high. The real - estate market is in adjustment, and with the end of maintenance and high futures warehouse receipts, the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [18]. Coking Coal - Supply is tightening due to production restrictions in Shanxi. The inventory is being transferred downstream. The demand from steel mills is affected by environmental protection, resulting in a tight - balance situation, and the price is expected to be in high - level consolidation [19][20]. Urea - Supply is increasing with high daily production. Demand is also increasing as the downstream replenishes at low prices. The market atmosphere is improving, and the price is expected to have a small - range rebound and narrow - range oscillation [21].