冠通期货研究报告：复合肥成品走货顺畅

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing. The market sentiment has improved, and the futures price is on a small rebound, with limited upside and downside space, mainly in a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - The compound fertilizer has smooth sales, and the finished - product inventory is being depleted. The winter - storage pre - sale policy of factories is being introduced, but dealers' fertilizer - stocking this year is more cautious, and their purchasing ability may be weaker than in previous years [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Analysis - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1630 yuan/ton, closed at 1644 yuan/ton, up 0.74%. The trading volume was 275,142 lots, an increase of 2887 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 1539 lots, and short positions increased by 4121 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot trading is considerable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton, with Henan's price at the lower end [1][5]. - Warehouse receipts: On November 6, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3900, the same as the previous trading day [3]. b) Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The basis of the January contract in Henan weakened to - 74 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [8]. - Supply: On November 6, 2025, the national daily urea production was 204,000 tons, an increase of 4400 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 86.2% [10]. - Enterprise Inventory: As of November 5, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5781 million tons, an increase of 23,800 tons from the previous week, a 1.53% increase. The pre - sale order days were 7.29 days, a decrease of 0.24 days from the previous period, a 3.19% decrease [13]. - Downstream: From October 31 to November 7, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 31.04%, the same as the previous week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 53.2%, an increase of 3.22 percentage points from the previous week [15].