MTM(SH:688029) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-11-06 11:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][13]. Core Views - The impact of centralized procurement is expected to stabilize gradually, while overseas markets continue to drive growth. The company is actively collaborating with distributors to reduce inventory, and new products are receiving positive feedback. Domestic growth is anticipated to recover in 2026 as the effects of centralized procurement stabilize [2][13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,411 million, with a year-on-year growth of 21.8%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 4,750 million, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.4% [5][14]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 486 million in 2023 to 944 million in 2027, with a CAGR of 18.4% [5][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 2.59 in 2023 to 5.02 in 2027 [5][14]. Market Performance - The company's current stock price is 81.77, with a target price set at 99.38, indicating a potential upside [7][8]. - The stock has a market capitalization of 15,360 million and has traded within a 52-week range of 56.98 to 100.35 [8][9]. Growth Drivers - The overseas business is maintaining rapid growth, with revenue from exports reaching approximately 1.4 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42% [13]. - Innovative products are expected to contribute significantly to growth, with notable increases in sales for visual products and sponge stents in key markets [13]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and risk management strategies, with current channel inventory at historically low levels. The integration of CME is progressing, and a new production facility in Thailand is expected to commence operations by the end of 2025, primarily serving the U.S. market [13].