Guoxin Securities·2025-11-06 11:38Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [4][16]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, but there was a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 167.6 billion RMB, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 27.07 billion RMB, down 29.0% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 58.5 billion RMB, down 20.4% year-on-year, and net profit was 9.53 billion RMB, down 55.1% year-on-year [1][7]. - The company's container shipping volume showed positive growth year-on-year, with a total of 6.9 million TEUs shipped in Q3, an increase of 4.9%. However, the supply-demand imbalance led to a significant decline in shipping rates, with the average CCFI down 39.5% year-on-year [1][10]. - The port business demonstrated steady growth, achieving a throughput of 113.28 million TEUs in the first three quarters of 2025, up 5.6% year-on-year. The throughput from controlled terminals was 25.04 million TEUs, an increase of 2.0% [2][10]. - The company is focused on shareholder returns, having distributed a mid-term dividend of 0.56 RMB per share, representing 50% of its net profit for the first half of the year. Additionally, a new share buyback plan has been announced, aiming to repurchase between 50 million to 100 million shares at a price not exceeding 14.98 RMB per share, with an expected total amount of 749 million to 1.498 billion RMB [2][12]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenue for 2025 to be 218.66 billion RMB, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year, with net profit expected to be 31.08 billion RMB, down 36.7% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.01 RMB [3][14]. - The EBIT margin is expected to be 15.6% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.4% [3][14]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in net profit for 2026 and 2027, with estimates of 23.29 billion RMB and 22.07 billion RMB respectively [13].