沥青日报：震荡下行-20251106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The asphalt market is showing a trend of fluctuating downward. The supply side has a slightly increased production rate but is still at a relatively low level in recent years, and the expected production in November has decreased. The downstream industry's start - up rate has mostly increased, but is restricted by funds and weather. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries continues to decline and remains at a record low. The crude oil price fluctuates, and the forward low - price resources of refineries are released, causing the asphalt futures price to show a weak and fluctuating trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The asphalt production rate last week increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% month - on - month, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and is at a relatively low level in recent years. The expected domestic asphalt production in November is 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month - on - month and a decrease of 274,000 tons (11.0%) year - on - year [1]. - Most of the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries increased last week. The start - up rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% month - on - month, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but is restricted by funds and weather [1]. - The shipment volume of the main refineries in North China increased significantly last week. The national shipment volume increased by 13.98% month - on - month to 331,300 tons, at a neutral level. The inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly and is still at the lowest level in recent years [1]. - The market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. The meeting between the leaders of China and the United States basically met market expectations. OPEC + decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The crude oil price fluctuated. The forward low - price resources of refineries were released intensively, and the basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level and is currently at a neutral level. The spot price followed the decline, and the asphalt futures price showed a weak and fluctuating trend [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 2.05% to 3,109 yuan/ton today, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,103 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3,167 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 1,885 to 201,642 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract dropped to - 9 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Zhonghai Yingkou resumed asphalt production. The asphalt production rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% month - on - month, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and is at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - From January to September, the investment in national highway construction decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - August 2025 but is still negative. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 2.7%, a slight rebound from - 3.3% in January - August 2025 but still in a negative growth situation. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, continuing to decline from 2.0% in January - August 2025 [4]. - As of the week of October 31, most of the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries increased. The start - up rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% month - on - month, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, and is restricted by funds and weather [4]. - From the perspective of social financing stock, from January to September 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.1 percentage point compared with January - August. The new social financing in September was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less year - on - year due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4]. - As of the week of October 31, the inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.3% compared with the week of October 24 and is still at the lowest level in recent years [4].