原油日报：原油震荡下行-20251106

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus situation. Although there are factors such as potential restrictions on Russian oil exports and the outcome of Sino - US leaders' talks, the report expects crude oil prices to fluctuate in the near term [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情分析] - OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and will suspend production increase in Q1 2026. This will increase the supply pressure in Q4 2025 but relieve it in Q1 2026 [1]. - The peak consumption season is over, and market concerns about crude oil demand have arisen due to factors such as the decline in the US ISM manufacturing index in October. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and exports from the Middle East are rising [1]. - The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated. The future of Russian oil exports is uncertain, and India's attitude towards Russian oil imports is also divided [1]. - The Sino - US leaders' talks basically met market expectations, and bilateral relations have not changed fundamentally [1]. [期现行情] - The main crude oil futures contract 2512 fell 0.37% to 460.4 yuan/ton, with a low of 456.0 yuan/ton and a high of 465.8 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 828 to 27,991 lots [2]. [基本面跟踪] - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in Q4 2025, raises the US crude oil production forecast for 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day, and adjusts the average Brent crude oil price for 2025 [3]. - OPEC and IEA have different adjustments to the global oil demand and supply growth rates for 2025 and 2026, and the oil supply surplus is intensifying [3]. - US EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels in the week ending October 31, 2025, and gasoline inventory decreased more than expected, while overall oil product inventories increased slightly [4]. - OPEC's August crude oil production was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day, and its September production increased by 524,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production reached a new high in the week ending October 31 [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.344 million barrels per day, 2.20% lower than the same period last year. The demand for gasoline and diesel also decreased [5].