塑料日报：震荡下行-20251106

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The plastic industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future. The开工率 of plastics is at a neutral level, while the downstream开工率 of PE is at a relatively low level in recent years. The cost of crude oil is fluctuating within a narrow range, and there is an increase in supply. The peak season for agricultural film is not as strong as expected, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market, and there is no actual policy for anti - involution in the plastic industry yet [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 6, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic开工率 remained at around 89.5%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream开工率 of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. Agricultural film is in the peak season, with orders and raw material inventories increasing to a neutral level in recent years, but packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall downstream开工率 of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years. Petrochemical inventories at the beginning of the month increased significantly and are now at a neutral level in recent years. The market has digested the news of Russian oil sanctions, and the meeting between Chinese and US leaders was in line with market expectations. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year, causing crude oil prices to fluctuate within a narrow range. There is new production capacity coming online, and the plastic开工率 has increased. The peak season for agricultural film is not as good as expected, and downstream purchasing willingness is insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market and are actively selling at reduced prices. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastic industry yet [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2601 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,745 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,819 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,805 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.38%. The position increased by 25,025 lots to 578,172 lots [2]. - Spot: Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,740 - 7,270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,920 - 9,730 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,030 - 7,990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 6, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic开工率 remained at around 89.5%, which is at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending October 31, the downstream开工率 of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. Agricultural film is in the peak season, with orders and raw material inventories increasing to a neutral level in recent years, but packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall downstream开工率 of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Inventory: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons, 20,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventories at the beginning of the month increased significantly and are now at a neutral level in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell to $64 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $730 per ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $740 per ton [4].