国投期货农产品日报-20251106

Report Investment Ratings - Beans 1: ★★★ (Predicted trending up) [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ (Predicted trending down) [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ (Predicted trending down) [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★☆ (Holding long, clear upward trend) [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★☆ (Holding long, clear upward trend) [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ (Predicted trending down) [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ (Predicted trending down) [1] - Pigs: ☆☆☆ (Predicted trending down) [1] - Eggs: ★★★ (Predicted trending up) [1] Core Views - The market for high - protein soybeans is optimistic due to tight supply and government procurement. The overall soybean and soybean meal market is affected by import costs and trade policies. Palm oil may stage a temporary stabilization. The strategy for rapeseed meal is bullish, and the view on rapeseed oil shifts to neutral. Corn prices are in a weak bottom - range oscillation. Pig prices are likely to have a second bottoming next year. Egg futures' near - term contracts are strong, waiting for short - selling opportunities in Q4. [2][3][4][5][6][7][8] Section Summaries Beans 1 - Beans 1 showed strong performance, breaking through previous highs. Cofco's soybean procurement and the tight supply of high - protein soybeans due to adverse weather have led to an optimistic market outlook. Short - term focus is on policy guidance. [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - US soybeans led the decline in the domestic market. The import tax rate for US soybeans is 13%, making commercial imports unprofitable. The current soybean meal price is driven by rising import costs and expected destocking in Q1 next year. Attention should be paid to the resumption of USDA reports and potential long - entry opportunities after Sino - US trade eases. [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil rebounded, with the oil - tank ratio and soybean - palm oil spread changing. After recent declines, palm oil's downward momentum has eased. The market will focus on USDA reports. There is a possibility of short - term stabilization for palm oil. [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal prices rose, and the strategy remains bullish. Rapeseed oil's view shifted from bearish to neutral, with a focus on changes in imports. The market is watching Australian rapeseed arrivals and Canadian trade policies. [5] Corn - Dalian corn futures rose 0.75% at the end of the session. Northeast corn supply growth has slowed, while Shandong's supply has increased. The import tax rate for US corn has changed. The market should watch for new Sino - US trade agreements and changes in Northeast farmers' selling enthusiasm. [6] Pigs - Pig spot prices are weakly stable, and futures are consolidating. The number of breeding sows decreased in October, but the later supply is still increasing. The second - round fattening will increase future supply pressure. Pig prices are likely to have a second bottoming next year. [7] Eggs - Egg futures' near - term contracts hit new highs, and spot prices rose slightly. The October laying - hen inventory decreased slightly, and chick replenishment was low. The market is waiting for short - selling opportunities in Q4. [8]