国投期货能源日报-20251106

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Asphalt: One star, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] Core Views - The overall energy market shows a complex situation with different trends for each product. The mid - term supply - demand situation, geopolitical factors, and seasonal factors all have an impact on the price trends of various energy products [2][3][4] Summary by Industry Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, showing a volatile and weak trend this week. After the API crude oil inventory increased more than expected, last week's EIA crude oil inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels more than expected. The mid - term bearish impact of supply - demand surplus on oil prices persists. Although the attack on Russia's largest Black Sea port Tuapse and surrounding refineries affected short - term shipments and production, the refinery operating rate in the last week of October has recovered to the highest level since August. Geopolitical factors have a volatile impact on oil supply, and there is still a risk of oil price decline this year [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil has been dominated by the trend of crude oil, showing a volatile pattern. Low - sulfur fuel oil shows a certain strengthening trend compared with high - sulfur fuel oil. The unexpected shutdown of Kuwait's Al - Zour refinery, the adjustment of the shipping rhythm after the restart of Dangote refinery, and the possible transfer of some low - sulfur export quotas in China to the refined oil sector have jointly promoted the short - term strengthening of its cracking spread. However, the overall supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Asia is still sufficient, with a new batch of 540,000 barrels of low - sulfur oil from Malaysia's PrefChem planned to be loaded in late November. There are still many remaining quotas in China, so the continuous upward momentum is expected to be limited. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical conflicts, but the market's expectation of a reduction in Russian supply has been basically digested. At the same time, the previously damaged refineries are gradually recovering, combined with the off - season of power generation demand and the increasing production trend of OPEC +, the mid - term supply pattern tends to be loose. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to expand [3] Asphalt - Construction in the north is gradually weakening, with construction in the northeast and northwest gradually stopping due to low temperatures, while there is still a demand for rush construction in the south. There are multiple bearish signals in the fundamentals. Since late October, the year - on - year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has turned negative for the first time, and it is likely to continue this negative trend. The decline of the overall weekly commercial inventory has slowed down, and the social inventory at the end of October has increased year - on - year for the first time this year. The market's bearish sentiment has deepened, and the price of asphalt (BU) continues to decline [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Today's main contract fluctuated narrowly, and the weekly commercial volume of liquefied petroleum gas decreased. The improvement of chemical profit has promoted the growth of demand, and the significant cooling in many places has improved the demand on the combustion end. The refinery storage capacity ratio has slightly decreased, while the port storage capacity ratio has increased. The international oil price shows a weak upward trend, and the lack of strong supporting factors in the fundamentals combined with the negative guidance from the cost side means that the main LPG contract is expected to fluctuate [5]