甲醇日评：低估值，弱驱动-20251106

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The short - term outlook for methanol is low - level oscillation. Methanol's absolute price and relative valuation are already relatively low, so short - selling based on valuation is not recommended. The short - term upward drive is limited due to higher expected imports from Iran and high MTO enterprise raw material inventory, resulting in insufficient downstream restocking power. Selling out - of - the - money put options is considered appropriate, taking into account coal cost support in winter, potential gas restrictions for inland gas - to - methanol production, and the recent increase in option volatility [1] Summary by Related Catalog 1. Price and Basis - Futures Prices: MA01 in Shandong closed at 2141 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 1.23% from the previous day; MA05 was at 2236 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.49%; MA09 was at 2239 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.09% [1] - Spot Prices: Factory prices in Shandong were 2107.50 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan or 0.36%; prices in Shaanxi were 1945 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or - 1.27%; in Sichuan and Chongqing, it was 2160 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.23%; in Hubei, it remained unchanged at 2180 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 1965 yuan/ton, up 12.50 yuan or 0.64% [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 63.50 yuan/ton, down 28.50 yuan or 1.29% [1] 2. Cost and Profit - Raw Material Prices: The price of Yulin Q6000 coal was 660 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 2.33%; Ordos Q5500 was 587.50 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan [1] - Profit: Coal - to - methanol profit was 128.10 yuan/ton, down 42.60 yuan or - 24.96%; Northwest MTO profit was 38.40 yuan/ton, up 40.20 yuan or 2233.33%; East China MTO profit was - 503.57 yuan/ton, down 33.50 yuan or - 7.13%; acetic acid profit was 397.17 yuan/ton, down 21.22 yuan or - 5.07%; MTBE profit was 323.84 yuan/ton, up 11.28 yuan or 3.61%; formaldehyde profit was - 250.80 yuan/ton, up 14.40 yuan or 5.43% [1] 3. Market Information - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2601 rebounded after a decline, opening at 2110 yuan/ton and closing at 2141 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 1,405,704 lots, and open interest was 1,372,748 lots, with increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - Foreign: A 2.3 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is under maintenance, and the overall operating load of methanol plants in the country is 74.45%. As of November 2nd, about 80,000 tons of methanol were shipped from the country in November [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]