黑色金属日报-20251106

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clear long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★, indicating a clear long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★, indicating a clear long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The overall demand for steel is still weak, with the expected demand remaining weak. The market sentiment has improved slightly, and the futures prices may fluctuate in the short - term. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Coke has a third - round price increase expectation, and coking coal prices are not expected to fall continuously. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices are likely to rise in a fluctuating manner [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Steel - Today's futures prices rebounded slightly. Thread demand and production both declined, and the inventory reduction slowed. Hot - roll demand dropped significantly, production decreased, and inventory rose slightly. Iron - water production declined from a high level, and the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remains to be alleviated. The overall domestic demand is weak, while steel exports remain high. The demand expectation is weak, but the market sentiment has improved. The futures prices may still fluctuate in the short - term [2] Iron Ore - Today's futures prices showed a strong - side oscillation. The global shipment is at a high level for the same period, and there is room for seasonal improvement. The domestic arrival volume has increased significantly, and port inventories are accumulating. Terminal demand has entered the off - season, steel demand has dropped, and steel mills' profitability has shrunk. There is further pressure on iron - water production cuts. After the macro - level positive news was implemented, the market tends to cash in on the benefits and start to trade the fact of a marginally looser iron ore market. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - The price oscillated upwards during the day. There is an expectation of a third - round price increase in the coking industry. Coking profits are average, and daily production has decreased slightly. Coke inventories have hardly changed. Downstream enterprises are making small - scale on - demand purchases, and traders' purchasing intentions are average. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and high - level iron - water production provides support, but steel mills' profit levels are average, and they have a strong intention to suppress raw material prices. The futures prices are at a premium [4] Coking Coal - The price oscillated upwards during the day. The market sentiment was affected by the resumption of production of a small number of coal mines in the Wuhai production area, but many coal mines facing resource integration have not resumed production, so prices are not expected to fall continuously. The production of coking coal mines has increased slightly, spot auction transactions have improved, and terminal inventories have increased. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and producer - side inventories have decreased slightly. High - level iron - water production provides support, but steel mills' profit levels are average, and they have a strong intention to suppress raw material prices. The futures prices are at a discount to Mongolian coal [6] Silicomanganese - Today's futures prices showed a strong - side oscillation. On the demand side, iron - water production remains at a high level above 236. Weekly production of silicomanganese has decreased slightly but remains at a high level, and inventories are slowly accumulating. The forward quotation of manganese ore is flat month - on - month. The price is likely to rise in a fluctuating manner [7] Ferrosilicon - Today's futures prices showed a strong - side oscillation. On the demand side, iron - water production remains at a high level above 236, and export demand has risen to about 40,000 tons. The secondary demand has increased marginally, and overall demand is acceptable. Supply remains at a high level, and on - balance - sheet inventories are continuously decreasing. The price is likely to rise in a fluctuating manner [8]