天富期货碳酸锂、工业硅、多晶硅日报-20251106

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures market is driven by both demand and inventory. The demand for lithium carbonate is strong due to the continued growth of new - energy vehicle sales and the rapid increase in energy - storage system installations. The inventory has been decreasing for 11 consecutive weeks. The production of lithium carbonate is expected to be stable in November and may decrease in December - January due to weather factors. Technically, it may have short - term horizontal consolidation. The market also needs to pay attention to the progress of lithium mine复产 [1]. - The industrial silicon futures market shows a horizontal oscillation. The supply is expected to decrease but still faces pressure, and the demand may further weaken. The spot price is firm, and the futures market is expected to have short - term horizontal oscillation. The fundamentals may improve during the dry season, and there will be more disturbing factors in winter [6][8]. - The polysilicon futures market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The production in November is expected to decline, and the inventory is decreasing. The silicon wafer production in November will decrease, the battery market is weak, and the component market is stable. Technically, it is mainly in a wide - range oscillation [11]. 3) Summary by Directory Carbonate Lithium - Fundamentals - The main 2601 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 1.72% to 80,500 yuan/ton. The demand is strong as the downstream material enterprises' production activity increases, new - energy vehicle sales grow (1.61 million units in October 2025, a 16% year - on - year and 7% month - on - month increase), and energy - storage system installations rise. The inventory has decreased by about 16,000 tons in 11 weeks, with 3,406 tons this week. The production in November is expected to be similar to October, and may decrease in December - January due to weather [1]. - Technical Analysis - The overall position of lithium carbonate futures has increased significantly. The main 2601 contract increased positions and went up today, controlled by bulls. There were "three - line resonance method" opportunities with volume increase at 11:30 and 13:50 on the 5 - minute cycle, with a 1:2 profit - loss ratio. The 5 - minute cycle is currently in a strong state, and the position has decreased, expected to have short - term horizontal oscillation. The 2 - hour cycle's long - short dividing water level is 83,400 yuan/ton [2]. Industrial Silicon - Fundamentals - The main 2601 contract of industrial silicon futures rose 0.50% to 9,065 yuan/ton. There is no new policy on production capacity. Affected by the macro - sentiment, the domestic commodity market is strong. The supply in the southwest production area is expected to decrease, but the pressure remains. The demand from polysilicon and its downstream may further weaken. The spot price is firm, and the basis price quoted by some futures - cash merchants has been raised, which may support the futures price [6][8]. - Technical Analysis - The overall position of industrial silicon futures has increased slightly. The main 2601 contract increased positions and went up today, controlled by bulls. The 5 - minute cycle is in an oscillating state, and the position has decreased, expected to have short - term horizontal oscillation. The 2 - hour cycle's long - short dividing water level is 9,170 yuan/ton [8]. Polysilicon - Fundamentals - The main 2601 contract of polysilicon futures rose 0.07% to 53,395 yuan/ton. The market has a situation of weak supply and demand. The production in October was about 134,000 tons, and it is expected to decline in November. The inventory decreased to 256,000 tons by October 31, a decrease of 10,600 tons from last week. The silicon wafer production in November will decrease, the battery market is weak, and the component market is stable [11]. - Technical Analysis - The overall position of polysilicon futures has decreased. The main 2601 contract decreased positions and went down today, controlled by bulls. There was a "similar three - line resonance method" opportunity with volume increase at 9:55, with a 1:2 profit - loss ratio. The 5 - minute cycle is in a weak state, and it is difficult to have a trending market, mainly in a wide - range oscillation. The 2 - hour cycle's long - short dividing water level is 56,410 yuan/ton [11][13].