油脂周报：油脂反弹、玉米突破上行-20251106

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends. Oils and fats are rebounding, corn has broken through and is rising, eggs are continuously strengthening, while some products like红枣 are falling and others are fluctuating [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - Market Trend: The palm oil main 2601 contract has strongly rebounded. After the market digested the bearish factors, it had a technical rebound. The bearish factors of high production and inventory in Malaysia in October were gradually digested, and the approaching减产季 provided some support [2]. - Strategy: Close short - positions. The support level for the palm oil main 2601 contract is 8562, and the resistance level is 8780 [2]. (2) Corn - Market Trend: The corn main 2601 contract has broken through and risen, driven by improved demand. Policy support, farmers' reluctance to sell, reduced wheat substitution, and increased demand from corn starch enterprises have supported the price [3]. - Strategy: Go long with a light position. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 2130, and the resistance level is 2145 [3]. (3) Rapeseed Meal - Market Trend: The rapeseed meal main 2601 contract has continued to rise, supported by tight supply. High import costs, limited domestic soybean meal price increases, and a halt in rapeseed imports have led to a shortage of raw materials and a decline in rapeseed meal inventory [5]. - Strategy: Go long with a light position. The support level for the 2601 contract is 2520, and the resistance level is 2560 [5]. (4) Eggs - Market Trend: The egg main 2512 contract has continued to rise, driven by improved demand. Cooling weather is conducive to storage and transportation, and the traditional winter stocking season and increased hen culling have supported the price [7]. - Strategy: Continue to go long with a light position. The support level for the main 2512 contract is 3190, and the resistance level is 3250 [7]. (5) Red Dates - Market Trend: The red dates main 2601 contract has continued to fall, pressured by new jujube listings and increased inventory. The expected large - scale production reduction has basically failed, and the inventory is much higher than the same period last year [9]. - Strategy: Hold short - positions. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 9560, and the resistance level is 9770 [9]. (6) Live Pigs - Market Trend: The live pig main 2601 contract has fluctuated narrowly after a previous rebound. Cold weather has boosted consumption, but high inventory has limited the price rebound space [11]. - Strategy: Trade short - term. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 11825, and the resistance level is 12055 [11]. (7) Cotton - Market Trend: The cotton main 2601 contract has fluctuated narrowly after a sharp rise. The overall supply is abundant, but the inventory in inland areas is being digested, and textile enterprises' inventory pressure is not large [13]. - Strategy: Go long with a light position. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 13580, and the resistance level is 13700 [13]. (8) Apples - Market Trend: The apple main 2601 contract has fluctuated sharply, with both bullish and bearish factors. The expected low inventory due to low fruit quality and the potential shortage of deliverable goods coexist with the pressure from increased supply of ordinary goods and competition from citrus fruits [16]. - Strategy: Trade short - term. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 8886, and the resistance level is 9100 [16]. (9) Sugar - Market Trend: The Zhengzhou sugar main 2601 contract has fluctuated narrowly after a sharp fall. The global expected sugar surplus and the upcoming domestic sugar production increase have pressured the price [19]. - Strategy: Go short with a light position. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 5426, and the resistance level is 5451 [19].