Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-11-06 13:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba Group (09988.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [5][7] Core Views - Alibaba is expected to see accelerated revenue growth in its cloud segment and expanded investment in flash sales [5] - The company is focusing on its e-commerce and cloud computing sectors, with significant investments aimed at opening new growth avenues [7] Financial Forecasts - For FY2026Q2, Alibaba is projected to achieve total revenue of 242.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3%, with adjusted EBITA margin at 2.3% [6] - The Chinese e-commerce group is expected to generate revenue of 126.8 billion RMB, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 7% [6] - The cloud intelligence group is anticipated to see revenue of 38.5 billion RMB, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 9%, reflecting a 30% year-on-year growth [6] - The forecasted net profit for FY2026 is 103 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of -21% [8] Business Segment Insights - The cloud segment aims to establish itself as a leading player in the AI cloud market, with a market share of 35.8% in China as of the first half of 2025 [6] - The Chinese e-commerce group is implementing a large consumption platform strategy, with significant investments in flash sales expected to drive new growth [6] - The international digital commerce group is focusing on key regions to enhance operational efficiency, projecting a 17% year-on-year revenue growth [6]