流动性观察第118期：10月金融数据前瞻：信贷季节性回落，社融、货币降速

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" (Maintain) [1] Core Viewpoints - In October, credit issuance is expected to seasonally weaken, with new RMB loans projected to be around 200 to 400 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 100 to 300 billion [4][6] - Social financing (社融) is anticipated to be between 600 to 800 billion, with a growth rate declining to approximately 8.4% [12][15] - The government bond remains the main contributor to social financing growth, while the overall financing demand is expected to remain weak in the short term [15][19] Summary by Sections Credit Market - The expected new RMB loans for October are between 2000 to 4000 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 1000 to 3000 billion, leading to a month-end growth rate of approximately 6.5% to 6.6% [6][16] - Corporate credit is expected to see a seasonal decline, with short-term loans potentially turning negative due to weakened business sentiment [7][8] Social Financing - The forecast for new social financing in October is between 6000 to 8000 billion, with a growth rate around 8.4%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease [12][15] - Government bonds are projected to contribute significantly to social financing, with net financing expected to be 5281 billion, lower than the previous year's figures [13] Monetary Supply - M1 and M2 growth rates are expected to decline due to high base effects, with M1 and M2 increments projected at -526 billion and 2294 billion respectively [19][22] - The seasonal effects of fiscal revenue and the expansion of asset management products are influencing the dynamics between government and general deposits [19]