2025年11月小品种策略：把握年末信用利差压缩行情

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the opportunity to capitalize on the year-end credit spread compression trend, with expectations of a slowdown in the rate of future increases, particularly in medium to long-term coupon-bearing products [12][13] - The report suggests that the central bank's resumption of bond purchases is not a one-time benefit but aims to encourage banks to expand their balance sheets and support fourth-quarter supply, indicating a potential for continued monetary easing [12][13] - In October, the credit bond yields experienced a significant decline, with the 5Y yield dropping by approximately 20 basis points, and AAA-rated 1Y bonds narrowing by at least 9 basis points, indicating a strong demand for coupon assets [12][13] Group 2 - In the corporate perpetual bond market, October saw a substantial increase in issuance, with 173 bonds issued totaling 172 billion, marking a 22% increase from the previous month, and achieving a net inflow of 52 billion [21][22] - The report notes that the financing costs for AAA and AA+ rated bonds slightly decreased, with rates at 2.31% and 2.56% respectively, while the issuance of AAA-rated bonds accounted for 91% of the total [21][22] - The sectors leading in issuance included public utilities, urban investment, and construction, with urban investment bonds from 13 provinces totaling 34.6 billion, and Shandong province leading with 10.6 billion [24][26] Group 3 - The report highlights that the ABS market has seen a widening premium compared to ordinary credit bonds, primarily due to a slower decline in yields, with expectations for overall yield declines to follow credit bonds but limited opportunities for excess returns [16][17] - It recommends prioritizing ABS types with a higher safety margin, such as urban investment ABS and low-risk types like fee income rights and affordable housing, while suggesting that the issuance of ABS from large central enterprises remains a viable option [16][17] - The report indicates that the trading volume of ABS has decreased, with a total issuance of 181.1 billion in October, reflecting a significant drop in financing scale [40]