策略日报：测试前高-20251106

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - Interest rate bonds experienced fluctuations, with short-term rates stable and long-term rates declining. The strengthening of the dollar and adjustments in risk assets followed the Fed's stance against December rate cuts, indicating a potential for further strengthening of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, while non-U.S. assets may face short-term pressure [1][17][4] - The domestic risk assets are expected to continue rising after a short-term adjustment, as the market has overreacted to the Fed's statements. The bond market is anticipated to consolidate for about one quarter before confirming a stronger risk asset trend [1][17][4] Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4000 points and a trading volume of 2.07 trillion yuan, indicating a slight increase from the previous trading day. Over 2800 stocks rose, suggesting a positive market sentiment [2][19] - Caution is advised in A-share operations, particularly in high-volatility technology stocks, while sectors like coal, banking, and photovoltaic remain at lower levels, presenting potential investment opportunities [2][19] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - All three major U.S. indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.48%, S&P 500 up 0.37%, and Nasdaq up 0.65%. However, the market is entering a high-risk zone, and investors are advised to control risks and wait for better buying opportunities [3][28] - The technical analysis indicates that if the U.S. stock market continues to decline, there may be significant downward space, especially as the VIX remains low [3][28] Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1231, a decrease of 46 basis points. The dollar index is expected to maintain its strong performance, with the RMB likely to experience wide fluctuations against the dollar [4][31][33] - The dollar index has surpassed the previously indicated strong point of 99, with expectations that its upward movement will exceed market predictions [4][33] Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index rose by 0.69%, with coal, polyester, and precious metals increasing, while oil and plastics sectors declined. The overall commodity market is expected to experience fluctuations, and a wait-and-see approach is recommended [4][34][37] Group 6: Important Policies and News - The Chinese government is willing to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation with the EU and explore various trade agreements, indicating a proactive approach to international trade [5][39] - Significant progress in the photovoltaic sector is noted, with major companies discussing restructuring to eliminate excess capacity, which has been a persistent issue in the industry [5][40]