Changjiang Securities·2025-11-06 14:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2,113.441 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.69%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 29.984 billion yuan, down 32.23% year-on-year. In the third quarter alone, revenue was 704.389 billion yuan, a decline of 10.88%, with a net profit of 8.501 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.50% [2][5]. - The upstream sector is focused on increasing reserves and production while reducing costs, but profits have been impacted by falling oil prices. The refining business is adapting to market changes with a focus on efficiency, yet the decline in oil prices has significantly reduced inventory profits. The marketing and distribution segment has seen a notable drop in sales volume due to weak consumption [2][5]. - The concept of "anti-involution" is expected to promote long-term healthy development in the industry, as government initiatives aim to address excessive competition and optimize supply structures [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 2,113.441 billion yuan, down 10.69% year-on-year, and a net profit of 29.984 billion yuan, down 32.23% year-on-year. In the third quarter, revenue was 704.389 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.88%, with a net profit of 8.501 billion yuan, down 0.50% [2][5]. Upstream Sector - The company has made progress in increasing reserves and production while reducing costs. The oil and gas equivalent production for the first three quarters was 394.48 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. However, international oil prices fell by 14.4% year-on-year, leading to a 15.76% decline in pre-tax profit for the exploration and development segment, totaling 38.085 billion yuan [2][5]. Refining and Chemical Business - The refining segment processed 186 million tons of crude oil, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year. Despite challenges from falling oil prices and declining demand for gasoline and diesel, the refining segment's pre-tax profit was 7 billion yuan, an increase of 13.71% year-on-year. The chemical segment faced severe conditions with a pre-tax loss of 8.2 billion yuan, an increase in losses of 3.4 billion yuan year-on-year [2][5]. Marketing and Distribution - The marketing and distribution segment experienced a significant decline in sales volume, with total sales of refined oil products at 171.4 million tons, down 5.7% year-on-year. The segment's pre-tax profit was 12.784 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.65% year-on-year [2][5]. Industry Outlook - The "anti-involution" initiative is expected to lead to a healthier industry environment. The government has emphasized the need to address excessive competition in key industries, including petrochemicals, which may lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity and a potential upward cycle in the industry [2][5].