金信期货日刊：尿素期货主力合约4日上涨：短期提振难改长期宽松-20251107

Report Information - Report Name: Goldtrust Futures Daily Journal - Report Date: November 7, 2025 - Report Institution: Goldtrust Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term rise of urea futures is difficult to change the long - term supply - demand imbalance. Although the short - term futures price may maintain a narrow - range shock, the long - term price is likely to return to a weak consolidation state. Opportunities for short - term long positions can be grasped, and the follow - up market depends on the export quota policy [3][4]. - For A - share index futures, the market is expected to continue to oscillate upward at a high level [7]. - For gold, after more than a week of adjustment, there are signs of stabilization, and low - level buying for long positions can be considered [12]. - For iron ore, considering the possible short - term decline of hot metal and the approaching of the lower edge of the daily - level oscillation range, low - level long positions can be considered, but long - term supply is expected to be loose [15][16]. - For glass, pay attention to the long - position opportunities after the price stabilizes at a low level, and the subsequent driving force lies in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies [19][20]. - For eggs, as the supply of eggs will be seasonally tight, long - position opportunities can be grasped [22]. - For pulp, due to the stable supply and cautious purchasing attitude, it is expected to run weakly, and a low - level oscillation should be considered [25]. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures - On November 6, the urea futures 2601 contract closed at 1,640 yuan/ton, with a 0.74% increase. The rise was mainly boosted by the spot end, strengthening the short - term bullish expectation [3]. - Currently, the agricultural demand for urea is in the final stage, while the industrial demand from compound fertilizer enterprises shows a phenomenon of following up on purchases when the price is low. However, in 2025, urea is in a capacity expansion cycle, with nearly 7 million tons of new capacity added throughout the year, and the supply is expected to be loose [3]. A - share Index Futures - The three major A - share indexes opened higher and moved higher in the morning and maintained an oscillating upward trend throughout the day. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.06 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai Composite Index finally standing firmly above 4,000 points. The market is expected to continue to oscillate upward at a high level [7][8]. Gold - After more than a week of adjustment, gold shows signs of stabilization, and low - level buying for long positions can be considered [12]. Iron Ore - After the holiday, there is no actual improvement at the terminal, and hot metal may decline in the short term. Technically, it is approaching the lower edge of the daily - level oscillation range, so low - level long positions can be considered. In the long term, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [15][16]. Glass - The daily melting volume of glass has little change, and the inventory has decreased this week. The subsequent driving force lies in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for the supply side. Pay attention to the long - position opportunities after the price stabilizes at a low level [19][20]. Eggs - As the temperature drops, egg production in major laying - hen areas in the north will enter the winter off - season, and in the south, it will enter the early stage of the winter off - season. The monthly supply of commercial eggs will stop increasing and start to decline, and long - position opportunities can be grasped [22]. Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable. The price increase of downstream paper enterprises has boosted the pulp price, and the futures have increased in position and price. However, the supply is still loose, and the purchasing attitude is cautious. It is expected to run weakly, and a low - level oscillation should be considered [25].